000 AXNT20 KNHC 232351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 751 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails south of 09N between 22W-28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 02N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are south of 13N between 45W-48W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W from 18W southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust, therefore no convection is present at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W from 19N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted inland over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Venezuela. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W south of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over Jamaica and Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N-19N between 78W-79W and from 09N-10N between 77W-82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 10N34W. The ITCZ extends from 10N34W to 08N45W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N48W to 08N53W. Aside from the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough from 06N-12N between 53W-23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored over the west Atlantic. A stationary front extends from a 1007 mb low in the southeast coast to the northwest coast of Texas entering the Gulf waters from 29N92W to 27N97W. A surface trough is located 150 nm ahead of the front from 27N90W to 25N95W. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted along the frontal boundary and the trough covering the northern Gulf coast. The convection extends from 25N-30N between the Florida Panhandle to the coast of Louisiana to the South Texas, W of 84W. Two other troughs are noted, one west of the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N91W to 18N93W, and a second trough near the Mexican coast from 23N97W to 19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is developing along the troughs. Aside from the convection gusty winds, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin. A weak front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico through Wed, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevailing behind the front. The front will stall from the Florida Big Bend to S Texas on Wed night, then dissipate through Thu. Weak high pressure will build over the NE Gulf Fri and Sat. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails across the Greater Antilles. In the south-central Caribbean scattered showers are present in the vicinity of the monsoon trough south of 13N between 71W-76W. This activity is also affecting portions of Central America. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest winds over the south central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat, becoming near gale force along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Strong winds will develop south of Hispaniola beginning on Thu as high pressure strengthens. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands late Wed night and move over the eastern Caribbean on Thu, with fresh to strong winds east of the wave axis. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for more information on the two tropical waves over the Atlantic. Surface ridge extends along 29N covering the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 28N34W and another high centered near 30N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing west of 62W across the northern Bahamas and the coast of Florida and from 31N to 21N. A weak 1014 mb surface low is centered near 29N78W. Scattered moderate convection extends 100 nm out from the low center. High pres along 28N/29N will shift southward Wed. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW waters Thu. The front will become stationary Thu night, then gradually weaken over the NW portion Fri and Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres