000 AXNT20 KNHC 230529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three is centered near 26.1N 79.3W at 23/0300 UTC or 60 nm SE of West Palm Beach Florida moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should remain just offshore of the east coast of Florida over the next day or so. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida through Tuesday. Widely scattered moderate convection is over a large area from 25N-30N between 75W-80W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 40W/41W from 02N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N-10N between 36W-44W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust, and no convection is present. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 56W- 63W, including over portions of Suriname and Guyana. Similar convection is also over the Leeward Islands from 14N-17N between 61W-63W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W/71W south of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ extends from 10N30W to 09N39W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N42W to 07N49W. The ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave from 06N52W to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Aside from the convection previously described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough over W Africa from 07N-12N between 11W-16W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is over the N Gulf along 30N. 5-10 kt variable winds are over most of the Gulf. 15-20 kt NE winds are, however, along the Yucatan Peninsula coast. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N between 90W-96W. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N86W. Another small upper level low is centered over the the SW Gulf near 22N95W. A ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken through Tue, allowing a cold front to move into the northern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall from near the Florida Big Bend to S Texas Tue night and dissipate Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across most of the basin, except for fresh winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See Above. Widely scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, and the SW Caribbean S of 11N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near 14N73W. Strong subsidence is over most of the central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Sat, pulsing to near gale force along the coast of Colombia at night. High pressure will build N of the area Thu. This will increase areal coverage of the fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Three. Two tropical waves are also over the Atlantic. See above. A high pressure ridge extends along 29N across much of the northern Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N61W, and a 1025 mb high near 29N34W. Surface ridging dominating the Atlantic will move eastward on Tue night as Tropical Depression Three moves N across the western waters. A surface trough will move into the NW waters Thu, where it will linger through the remainder of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa