000 AXNT20 KNHC 221015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 615 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are near the N coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 74W-76W. Seas are 9-12 ft. After 12Z Monday morning, winds will subside below gale force. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 03N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N-09N between 30W-36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 06N-21N. This wave is completely embedded within the middle of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust, and no convection is present. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 03N-08N between 52W-58W, including over portions of Suriname and Guyana. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from 06N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers around Puerto Rico. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 03N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean, Costa Rica, and Panama, S of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ begins near 07N23W to 08N32W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N35W to 07N45W. The ITCZ resumes W of another tropical wave near 07N48W to the coast of Suriname near 06N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 25W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 29N. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 16N-19N between 92W-95W. In the upper levels, a small upper level low centered over the SE Gulf near 25N86W is enhancing convection. Isolated moderate convection is from 25N-27N between 87W-89W. Isolated moderate convection is over the E Gulf E of 85W. Similar convection is over the central Gulf from 24N-26N between 90W-93W. A ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico will retreat E Tuesday night and allow a cold front to move into the northern Gulf. The front will then stall and weaken Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across most of the basin, except for fresh winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan peninsula at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. Scattered showers are over Haiti, and N of Jamaica, from 18N-20N between 72W-79W. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean from 20N-22N between 82W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras. Further more, scattered showers are advecting over the Windward Islands S of S of 14N and E of 65W. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through next week. Winds along the coast of Colombia will be gale-force until 22/1200 UTC. Fresh easterly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above. A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 27N76W to 21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-26N between 74W-77W. More scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 26N- 30N between 72W-80W. A 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N47W. A 1024 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N21W. Over the W Atlantic, the central Bahamas trough will reach the waters between the Bahamas and Florida late tonight. A 29N/30N ridge will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Tuesday night. The ridge will start retreating eastward on Tuesday night, enabling a trough to move through the NW waters from Florida on Wednesday morning. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night, through the middle of next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa