000 AXNT20 KNHC 190602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near the coast of Africa along 13W from 03N- 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly inland extending offshore to 18W and along the African coast from Sierra Leone north to Senegal, 07N-13N. A tropical wave is along 32W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-11N between 31W-34W. A tropical wave extends from 28N46W to 17N47W to 06N43W, moving SW around 15 kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated over the NE Atlantic. Scattered showers are seen in the southern portion of the wave south of 09N. Most of the wave is traveling through a drier enviroment limiting convection, which is noted from 09N to 28N. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 24N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite imagery. Isolated moderate convection is over the N apex of the wave from 22N-26N between 57W-62W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over portions of the Windward Islands and E Caribbean from 13N-15N between 60W-65W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 08N-24N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are mainly confined to over land areas of Hispaniola, Windward Passag, Cuba and Jamaica. An area of scattered moderate convection is also noted remaining inland in NW Colombia and eastern Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 09N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N34W to 02N50W near the coast of Brazil. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough from 08N-11N between 18W-22W and in the vicinity of the ITCZ from 09N-11N between 28W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging is over much of the Gulf of Mexico, extending from the subtropical ridge over the west Atlantic. ASCAT shows gentle winds continue to prevail over much of the basin, with some moderate SE winds over the southwestern and far western Gulf. Above normal mid-level atmospheric moisture content in the eastern Gulf is leading to scattered showers and tstorms along the Florida Panhandle. A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through Sun night, then weaken on Mon. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will generally continue across the basin, except fresh to occasionally strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave over the Central Caribbean and the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. ASCAT from this morning shows strong winds from 11N-14N between 68W-73W, with fresh winds across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh trades are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are elsewhere. GOES-16 water vapor channels show that relatively dry air covers portions of the central and NW Caribbean. The only areas of significant precipitation in the Western Caribbean near the land areas of Cuba and Jamaica, as well as in the far SW Caribbean south of 10N near the coast of Panama and Costa Rica associated to the Pacific monsoon trough. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin. A pair of weak upper-level lows over the western Atlantic are near 25N76W and 25N66W, respectively. The western one is aiding in scattered showers and tstorms in the nothern Bahamas. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin, with a 1027 mb high near 34N29W south of the Azores. A high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Tue night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours through the period. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres