000 AXNT20 KNHC 172317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 717 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area will support winds briefly increasing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia this evening and tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave passing the Cabo Verde Islands is along 25/26W from 04N-20N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 23W-29W. A tropical wave extends from 30N40W to 20N35W, moving SW at 25-30 kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated over the NE Atlantic. At this time, the wave is traveling through a dry environment, and no convection is noted. A tropical wave is along 54W from 05N-23N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite imagery. Scattered showers and tstorms are within 90 nm of the northern portion of the wave axis from 20N-23N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from 10N-24N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers near and over Puerto Rico. Satellite imagery also shows scattered showers and tstorms over the Dominican Republic. Along most of the wave axis, dry air over the Caribbean is preventing any convection at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W from 04N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing tstorms over land over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N17W to 10N24W. The ITCZ begins near 09N27W to 05N38W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 04N-09N between 29W-45W and also off the coast of Africa from 09N-15N, mainly E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1021 mb surface high centered near New Orleans Louisiana. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf and central Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the far W and SW Gulf. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the far NE Gulf just offshore the Florida Big Bend as well as inland over Florida. Isolated showers and tstorms extend out over the central Gulf south of the ridge axis from 27N-28N between 85W-92W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are found across the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Tstorms are being enhanced by a tropical wave over the NW portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Another area of tstorms that formed over western Cuba from afternoon heating extends over water to the north of western Cuba, mainly south of 24N and east of 86W. A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through Sun night before it weakens Monday. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will generally continue across the basin, except for fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the Caribbean. Upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean. GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor channels indicate the presence of dry air over much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. This does not include the Windward Islands, where moisture is leading to scattered showers and tstorms from 10N-15N between 57W-64W. The western Caribbean is somewhat more moist, with scattered tstorms noted over western Cuba. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen in the far SW Caribbean, south of 12N. ASCAT data from this morning indicated strong trade winds from 11N-16N between 72W-80W with mainly moderate winds elsewhere in the basin. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the Coast of Colombia this evening into early Thu. Locally strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras each night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin. Patches of isolated to scattered showers and tstorms cover the W Atlantic to the west and north of a line from Andros Island Bahamas to Great Abaco Bahamas to 29N72W to 31N66W. Similar convection is over the Straits of Florida just N of the N coast of Cuba, mainly west of 80W. A large 1029 mb high centered over the Azores extends a surface ridge axis from the Azores to 29N50W to 29N65W. A high pressure ridge along 29N will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Mon night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen