912 AXNT20 KNHC 171742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of Colombia this evening and tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 24W from 04N-20N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 20W-28W. A tropical wave extends from 30N33W to 20N30W, moving SW at 20 kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated over the NE Atlantic. At this time, the wave is traveling through a dry environment, and no convection is noted. A tropical wave is along 53W from 05N-24N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite imagery. Scattered showers are over the northern portion of the wave from 20N-23N between 52W-56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 10N-24N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers around Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is well E of the wave axis over the the Windward Islands from 08N-13N between 58W-64W, also due to surface convergence. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 04N-21N, moving west at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 12N-18N between 80W-90W including the W Caribbean, and central America from Belize to S Nicaragua. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 15N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 03N40W to the coast of South America near 02N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-13N between 16W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. A trough is over the Bay of Campeche with scattered moderate convection from 19N-24N between 93W-98W. Isolated showers dots the E Gulf E of 90W, to include Florida and W Cuba. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W. Expect the high pressure ridge to remain over the northern Gulf coast through Sun night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will generally continue across the basin, except winds will be fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the waves traversing the Caribbean. Besides the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is S of W Cuba, and S of E Cuba. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola and over W Jamaica. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin, except between 75-82W where moderate to strong winds prevail. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the Coast of Colombia this evening into early Thu. Locally strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras each night. A tropical wave along 86W will exit the NW Caribbean early this evening. Another tropical wave along 65W will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Thu, move across the central Caribbean Thu night through Sat, then across the the western Caribbean Sat night through Sun night. Yet another tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters this afternoon through tonight and enter the far eastern Caribbean Thu. This wave will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Fri, the central Caribbean Fri night through early Sun and the western Caribbean during Sun and Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 28N-31N between 74W-80W. Similar convection is over the Straits of Florida from 23N-24N between 78W-80W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W. A large 1029 mb high is centered over the Azores near 37N25W. Over the W Atlantic, a high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Sun night. The high will be strong enough to generate fresh to strong E winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa