000 AXNT20 KNHC 171041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of Colombia Wed night due to low pressure deepening over northern Colombia. Seas will build to 8-14 ft as a result of these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 22W from 20N southward, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave from 06N-09N between 20W-27W. A tropical wave is along 30W from 30N-20N. This is a mid latitude trough. At this time, scattered showers are in the along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 22N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 24N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted moving across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W from 21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N-19N between 81W-86W including the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 17N16W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 01N47W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are noted within 80 nm north and south of the monsoon trough between 27W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered south of Apalachee Bay. With this, gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. A trough is present near 22N89W to 17N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the Bay of Campeche south of 22N associated to the trough. This activity will continue overnight as the usual thermal trough moves west from the peninsula into the southwest Gulf. A high pres ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through Sun night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail across the basin, except winds will be fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave traversing the central Caribbean. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, only scattered showers are noted across the remainder of the basin mainly from the Windward passage and south of Cuba. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except between 75-82W, where moderate to fresh winds prevail. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the Coast of Colombia this evening into early Thu. Locally strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras each night. A tropical wave along 84W will exit the NW Caribbean by early Thu. The next tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean and will reach the central Caribbean Thu night, then reach the western Caribbean Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin. A surface trough extends from 29N66W to 28N66W. Scattered showers are noted west of the trough from 27N-29N between 67W-70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 33N38W. A high pres ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Sun night. The high will be strong enough to generate fresh to strong E winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres