000 AXNT20 KNHC 170555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of Colombia Wed night due to low pressure deepening over northern Colombia. Seas will build to 8-14 ft as a result of these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 19W from 03N-20N, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the wave axis south of 12N to 07N between 13W-23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 48W from 06N-22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis and south of 11N. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from 09N- 23N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the southern portion of the wave mainly south of 11N. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from 04N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along and the wave axis between 80W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 21N17W to 05N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 04N48W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are noted within 80 nm north and south of the monsoon trough between 23W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered south of the Apalachee Bay. With this, gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over Florida have moved offshore reaching the far east Gulf coast mainly from 25N- 29N between 82W- 85W. This activity will dissipate tonight. Scattered showers are also developing over the Yucatan Peninsula reaching the Bay of Campeche at this time. This activity will continue overnight as the usual thermal trough moves west from the peninsula into the southwest Gulf. A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through Sun night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will generally prevail across the basin, except that winds will be fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave traversing the central Caribbean. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, only scattered showers are noted across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except between 75-82W, where moderate to fresh winds prevail. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the Coast of Colombia Wed night. Strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras each night tonight through Thu night. A tropical wave along 81W will exit the far western Caribbean Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave. The next tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean and will reach the central Caribbean Thu night, then reach the western Caribbean Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin. A surface trough extends from 29N66W to 28N66W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 34N38W. High pressure dominating the basin will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bahamas. The high will be strong enough to generate fresh to strong east winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola through Fri night, primarily during the evening hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres