000 AXNT20 KNHC 161732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds briefly increase to gale force NW of the Coast of Colombia Wed night due to low pressure over northern Colombia deepening. Seas will build to 8-14 ft as a result of these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 06N- 19N, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-15N between 13W- 20W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 06N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 43W-48W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the axis. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 08N-22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 51W-59W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 03N-18N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-17N between 73W-78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 09N20W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 09N43W, resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N47W and continues to 09N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are within 180 nm of the axis. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are over the southern Gulf south of 26N. Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle winds across the NE Gulf. Southeast moderate breeze winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf. A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through Sat night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will generally prevail across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds, northwest of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the developing Gale Warning NW of the Coast of Colombia. Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave traversing the central Caribbean. A small upper level low is centered over the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula producing upper level diffluence over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean to include Costa Rica and W Panama. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force NW of the Coast of Colombia Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Thu night. A tropical wave along 77W will move across the western Caribbean Wed through Thu night. A surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave. The next tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands this evening and move across the eastern Caribbean Wed through early Thu evening, then across the central Caribbean Thu night into Sat morning and across the eastern part of the western Caribbean Sat night. Yet another tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Thu and approach the Windward Islands Thu evening. This wave will move across the eastern Caribbean Fri through early Sat evening, and move into the eastern part of the central Caribbean Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin. A weak 1018 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to 28N70W. Scattered showers extend within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough extends from 29N54W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. A 1027 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N39W. The 1018 mb low over the W Atlantic will drift southwest to west through Wed while dissipating. High pressure ridging will build behind the low through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa