000 AXNT20 KNHC 151050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Barry at 15/0900 UTC is inland near 34.4N 93.5W, or about 80 mi WSW of Little Rock, Arkansas. Barry continues to move towards the N at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. T.D. Barry has maximum sustained wind speeds of 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. The convection associated with Barry remains away from the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends across the Mississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf coast. Scattered showers remain near the Louisiana and Texas coast. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Please see www.hurricanes.gov for the latest public advisory and forecast on Barry. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 15N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave is noted along 45W from 25N to 15N. This is a mid latitude trough. At this time, scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave. The Atlantic wave along 57W has been removed. Current satellite imagery and observations show no evidence of the wave in that area. In addition, wave diagnostic does not indicate the presence of a wave in that location. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 74W has been reposition back E to 68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted on the eastern side of the wave from 11N-14N between the Lesser Antilles to 68W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. This tropical wave is moving through the area of an upper level inverted trough. Cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N-13N between 80W-83W into Costa Rica and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 11N15W to 06N43W. The ITCZ continues from 06N43W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate showers are from 07N to 10N between 40W-48W. elsewhere along the monsoon trough, scattered showers are in the vicinity of the boundary and the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Barry is centered near SW Arkansas. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the northern half of the Gulf associated to T.D. Barry. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh E to NE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula extending to 92W and also north of 25N along the Texas and Louisiana coast. Light and gentle winds are seen across northeast Gulf coast. Remnant winds and seas associated with now distant Barry will diminish over the N central Gulf through the morning. High pressure will become established in the NE Gulf during the early part of the week, where it will remain thereafter. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will dominate the basin, occasionally fresh to strong W-NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea at this time. See above for details associated to these tropical waves. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across the Windward passage and south of Cuba. In the eastern Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mainly associated to the tropical wave along 67W. Scattered moderate to strong convection across the southwest Caribbean is to the due to the proximity of the Pacific monsoon trough extending from a 1009 mb low over Colombia. ASCAT data shows moderate to fresh conditions south of Jamaica with strong winds to the north of Colombia. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will also be fresh over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave near 87W will cross into Central America late tonight. Another tropical wave along 76W will reach the western Caribbean Mon. The next tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic tonight, the eastern Caribbean Mon, and the central Caribbean Tue into Wed. A surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave in the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N58W. South of the high, several trough are noted. First trough is noted 28N62W to 26N69W. Second trough is 31N52W to 27N59W, and third near 29N48W. Scattered to moderate convection is noted along the troughs. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N36W. A trough over the central Bahamas will move W, reaching the Florida Peninsula by early Tue. Another trough will move W of 65W by Wed, weakening as it moves across the Bahamas Thu and Fri. Yet another trough will move between 65W and 70W Fri and Fri night. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse mainly during the evening hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres