000 AXNT20 KNHC 150555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Barry at 14/0300 UTC is inland near 33.5N 93.5W, or about 70 mi N of Shreveport, Louisiana. Barry continues to move towards the N at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 26 knots with gusts to 30 knots. The strong convection is away from the center, near the coast. Scattered moderate convection extends across the Mississippi Valley and the northwestern Gulf coast. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 25N-29N between 92W-97W. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Barry is expected to become a post- tropical cyclone by Monday evening. Please see www.hurricanes.gov for the latest public advisory and forecast advisory on Barry. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 15N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 18N southward, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N between 55W-61W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 18N southward, moving W at 15kt. Isolated strong convection is seen south of Cuba, 100 nm NW of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. This tropical wave is moving through the area of an upper level inverted trough. Cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N-13N between 80W-83W into Costa Rica and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 12N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate showers are from 05N to 10N between 40W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression BARRY is inland, in NW Louisiana. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen is the northern half of the Gulf associated to T.D. Barry. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh E to NE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula extending to 92W and also north of 25N along the Texas and Louisiana coast. Light and gentle winds are seen across northeast Gulf coast. Winds and seas will diminish over the north Central Gulf tonight. High pressure will gradually build into the waters for the first half of the week, leading to moderate southeast winds across the area. Winds will occasionally become fresh to strong northwest of the Yucatan peninsula through Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea at this time. See above for details associated to these tropical waves. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of Cuba. In the eastern Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen 280 nm west of the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 14N between 63W-65W. Additional convection is mainly associated to the tropical waves in the basin. ASCAT data shows moderate to fresh conditions south of Jamaica with strong winds to the north of Colombia. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will also be fresh over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave near 87W will cross into Central America late tonight. Another tropical wave along 76W will reach the western Caribbean Mon. The next tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic tonight, the eastern Caribbean Mon, and the central Caribbean Tue into Wed. A surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave in the tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N57W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N60W to 27N70W, a second trough extends from 31N52W to 25N61W, and a third 29N46W 25N50W. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the troughs. A 1036 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N38W. A trough over the W Atlantic will move W across the waters S of 28N through early Tue when it will reach the Florida Peninsula. Another trough will move W of 65W by Wed, weakening as it approaches the Bahamas through Thu. High pres will dominate the region through the next several days, bringing gentle to moderate breezes except N of Hispaniola, where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evening hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres