000 AXNT20 KNHC 141808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 208 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Barry at 14/1500 UTC is inland near 31.8N 93.4W, or about 50 mi SSE of Shreveport, Louisiana. Barry is moving toward the N at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt gusting to 45 kt, and minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The heaviest convection is away from the center. Scattered moderate convection is over Mississippi and SE Louisiana from 28N-35N between 88W-90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 25N-29N between 92W-97W. Barry is expected to weaken as the center moves farther inland, and is forecast to transition to a tropical depression later today. Please see www.hurricanes.gov for the latest public advisory and forecast advisory on Barry. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 03N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 03N-22N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 51W-59W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 04N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-19N between 68W-74W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 02N-21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean and Panama S of 13N. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean N of 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 08N30W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 09N53W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 10N57W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are within 180 nm of the axis between 17W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 25N-29N between 92W-97W due to T.S. Barry. Scattered moderate convection is over the north central Gulf, N of 28N between 88W-90W, also due to T.S. Barry. 30-35 kt winds are still being reported along the SW Louisiana coast. A 1022 mb high is centered over N Florida near 30N82W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-20N between 94W- 96W. Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression today. Barry will move to 34.2N 93.5W Mon morning, and move to 35.7N 93.1W Mon evening, then become a remnant low and move to 37.4N 91.9W Tue morning, before dissipating Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish and subside across the basin through early Mon in the wake of Barry and as high pres ridging builds westward across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Additional scattered moderate convection are over the Windward Islands S of 15N. Isolated moderate convection is also over E Cuba, and W Cuba. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near the Cayman Islands enhancing convection. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will be fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave near 83W will cross into Central America by early Mon. Another tropical wave along 72W will reach the central Caribbean by early Mon, then reach the western Caribbean by Tue night. The next tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean Mon, and the central Caribbean Wed into Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N74W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to 23N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. The tail end of a stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 27N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N46W to 24N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. A 1027 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N32W. The W Atlantic trough will move W across the waters S of 28N through early Tue when it will reach the Florida Peninsula. Another trough will move W of 65W Wed, weakening as it approaches the Bahamas through Thu. Otherwise, high pres will dominate the region through the next several days, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evenings. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa