000 AXNT20 KNHC 131046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barry, at 13/0900 UTC, is centered near 29.1N 91.8W, or about 50 nm SW of Morgan City Louisiana, and about 25 nm S of Marsh Island in Vermilion Bay. The central pressure is 993 mb and maximum sustained winds are 55 kt gusting to 65 kt. Barry is moving to the WNW at 4 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and 240 nm in the southern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 23N-30N between 88W-96W. The ASCAT pass from late Friday evening and recent surface data indicate that the strongest winds are to the E and SE of the center. See hurricanes.gov to view the latest Public Advisory and Forecast Advisory for T.S. Barry. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 05N-16N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is along and east of the wave axis from 04N-11N between the coast of Africa and the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 03N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 10N42W. Scattered moderate showers are from 06N-12N between 35W-46W. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days as it continues westward. A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 04N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are within 150 nm W and 240 nm E of the wave axis A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74/75W from 05N- 17N, moving W around 20 kt. At this time, no significant convection is seen near this wave due to dry air and subsidence, except south of 10N along the East Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of southwestern Senegal near 12N17W to 09N24W to 10N30W. The ITCZ begins near 10N30W to 10N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N44W to 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are from 08N-10N between 29W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. Barry is over the north central Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for details. Isolated showers are over north Florida as well as the Yucatan Channel and the Bay of Campeche. In the upper levels, the upper level high centered over the Houston Texas area is starting to weaken. This could mean that northerly wind shear over T.S. Barry is abating, which may allow Barry to strengthen a little before the center makes landfall today. Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to move inland along the mid- Louisiana coast around midday today in the vicinity of the western portion of Vermilion Bay to the south of Lafayette, and it could be a 65 kt category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches the coast. Barry will then move slowly northward and farther inland while weakening. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to continue over the Gulf waters near the Louisiana coast until early Sunday morning. Winds over the far northern Gulf are then forecast to diminish to below 25 kt by late Sunday evening. Seas in excess of 20 ft now just off the Louisiana coast will subside to below 10 ft by sunrise Sunday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean Sea. Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. In addition, scattered showers and tstorms are south of Cuba from 18N-21N between 74W-83W. Subsidence is over much of the central Caribbean. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean for the entire period. Winds will be fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave near 74/75W will reach the western Caribbean Sun. Another tropical wave along 63W will reach the central Caribbean Sun, then reach the western Caribbean Tue. Yet another tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic early next week, then the eastern Caribbean by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and tstorms are moving NE well offshore northern Florida and Georgia, north of 29N between 76W-79W. A 1019 mb high is near 28N70W. A 1017 mb low near 28N64W is along a trough from 29N42W to 26N62W, with scattered showers and tstorms near it. A stationary front enters the area near 32N51W to 29N55W, dissipating to 28N57W, continuing as a sfc trough to 26N59W. Scattered showers are along and within 60 nm SE of the weakening stationary front and trough. Surface ridging covers the eastern Atlantic. The trough near 64W will move westward across the waters S of 27N through early Tue when it will reach the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, high pres will dominate the region through the middle of next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evenings. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen