000 AXNT20 KNHC 122335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 735 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barry, at 12/2100 UTC, is centered in the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28.7N 90.9W with a central pressure of 993 mb and moving WNW at 04 kt. This position is about 61 nm SSE of Morgan City, Louisiana. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Numerous strong convection is within 180 nm of the S quadrant of T.S. Barry. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere is from 22N-29N between 87W-96W. See the latest Public Advisories for T.S. Barry via the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are available under the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. See www.hurricanes.gov for more details also. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W from 05N-16N, moving W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 16W-23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 03N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 08N38W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W from 04N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 06N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is seen near this wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 02N-16N, moving W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 77W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 13N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ continues from 10N30W to 08N36W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N42W and continues to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, a large area of scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over W Africa from 06N-15N between 09W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. Barry is over the north central Gulf of Mexico. See the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. Scattered moderate convection is also over the NE Gulf and over north and central Florida. More scattered moderate convection is over W Cuba. Elsewhere, patches of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over S Mexico between 90W-99W. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over E Texas near 30N94W producing some shear over T.S. Barry. Tropical Storm Barry will move to 29.2N 91.3W tonight, strengthen to a hurricane, then move inland over Louisiana near 30.1N 91.9W Saturday afternoon. Barry will weaken and move farther inland near 31.3N 92.3W Saturday night, then become a tropical depression Sunday afternoon near 32.5N 92.5W. By Sunday night, Barry will be near 33.8N 92.7W, then become a remnant low in Arkansas on Monday. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf of Mexico Sun into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean Sea. Two other tropical waves are also over the Caribbean. See above. In addition, widely scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba and Jamaica. In the upper levels, strong subsidence is over the central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean for the entire period. Winds will be fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is seen along the NE Florida coast N of Daytona Beach. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also over the N Bahamas. A surface trough is over the N Bahamas from 28N79W to 23N79W. A 1019 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N70W. A 1016 mb low is centered further E near 30N55W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low. A 1025 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N26W. Over the W Atlantic, a trough will move westward across the waters S of 27N Saturday through early Tuesday when it will reach the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the region through early next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evenings. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa