000 AXNT20 KNHC 121737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 137 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Barry is centered in the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28.2N 90.4W, with an estimated central pressure of 998 mb, moving WNW at 4 kt. This position is about 100 nm SSE of Morgan City, Louisiana. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas of 15-20 ft are expected within 220 nm in the eastern semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails across most of the northern half of the Gulf basin mainly north of 24N and west of 86W. See the latest Public Advisories for Barry via the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are available under the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. See www.hurricanes.gov for more details also. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis extending along 17W from 06N-16N, moving west at around 10 kt. This position is based on model guidance, TPW imagery, and surface observations. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment mainly south of 10N between 17W-22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from 17N to a 1009 mb low near 09N37W to 03N37W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-12N between 35W- 41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N56W to 04N60W, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northern portion of the wave north of 10N. This activity will affect the Windward Islands this afternoon/evening. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W south of 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This position is depicted in 700 mb streamline analysis. At this time, no significant convection is present within this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the waves environment where the wave meets the monsoon trough affecting Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal Africa near 18N16W to 09N34W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 08N41W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, no significant activity is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more information on T.S. Barry. Scattered showers continue off the coast of Florida east of 85W. Moderate to strong winds prevail across most of the basin outside of T.S. Barry except over the Bay of Campeche, where light to gentle variable winds are noted in scatterometer data. Tropical Storm Barry will move to 28.6N 90.9W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 29.4N 91.5W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.5N 92.0W Sat evening, move farther inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.8N 92.4W Sun morning, and 33.0N 92.4W Mon morning. Barry will become a remnant low as it moves to Arkansas early Tue. Winds and seas diminish across the basin Sun into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves affecting the basin. Scattered low-topped showers are moving across the eastern Windward Islands ahead of the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the far southwest Caribbean, enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough and tropical wave, S of 12N between 76W-84W. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades prevail across the rest of the basin. Similar conditions will prevail through the next few days. Winds will be fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave near 84W will exit the western Caribbean by Sat. The tropical wave near 67W will reach the central Caribbean Sat and enter the western Caribbean late Sun. A third tropical wave near 58W will enter the eastern Caribbean tonight and reach the central Caribbean Sun, then reach the western Caribbean Tue enhancing convection across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the west Atlantic west of 77W. A surface trough extends from 29N79W to 24N78W. To the east, a 1016 mb surface low is centered near 30N55W, with cold front extending from it to 26N60W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 28N53W to 24N59W. Scattered showers prevail along these features. Surface ridging, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 27N69W, is seen across the rest of the basin. Meanwhile, a cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N52W to 27N59W to 29N64W. The tail-end of the boundary then stalls from 29N64W to 31N67W. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 27N56W to 24N62W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are along and within 50 nm of these boundaries between 50W-65W. Another surface trough is seen in the central Atlantic from 27N44W to 22N48W with no significant convection associated with it. Surface ridging, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 38N26W, prevails across the remainder of the basin. The surface trough over the west Atlantic will move westward across the waters Sat through early Tue when it will reach the Florida Peninsula. High pressure will dominate the region through early next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evening hours. The low/front over the central Atlantic will weaken and dissipate within the next couple of days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA