000 AXNT20 KNHC 111044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is a 1007 mb low centered near 27.5N 88.2W as of 11/0900 UTC, or about 170 nm SE of New Orleans, LA moving W at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 26 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 200 nm W and SW of the low center. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend out to 300 nm in the NE/SE quad. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, becoming a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today and Friday. Expect this system to move westward through Thursday, turning to north toward the Louisiana coast by Friday. Peak seas are forecast to be over 20 ft. For more information on this developing tropical cyclone, including information on the Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches that are currently in effect for portions of the United States, please visit hurricanes.gov to see the latest NHC public and forecast advisory products. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 13N southward, moving W around 10 kt. There is a 1012 mb low along this wave near 08N30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near this feature from 04N-11N between 30W-34W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 19N southward, moving W around 10 kt. This wave is in dry Saharan air and no significant convection associated with it at this time. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 13N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. A tropical wave to the east of the one along 58W is along an axis of 51W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows a low cloud swirl along the tropical wave along 51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N- 13N between 51W- 59W. The wave will bring enhanced rainfall to the Windward and southern Leeward Islands beginning early Friday. It will reach the central Caribbean by late Saturday and Central America by early Monday. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 17N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. No significant deep convective precipitation is seen over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal/The Gambia near 13N17W to 09N25W to 06N39W. The ITCZ begins near 06N39W and continues to 09N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen south of the monsoon trough from 06N- 11N between the coast of Africa and 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for more details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Weak ridging is seen across the western Gulf with fair weather prevailing across this area. Winds are generally light to gentle with moderate to fresh winds near Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends from central Cuba to northeastern Nicaragua. This feature, along with the tropical wave over the central Caribbean are enhancing scattered moderate convection near Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands, from 19N- 23N between 76W-84W. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue south of 16N between 76W- 84W. There is also a cluster of isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras. Drier air and fair weather covers the eastern Caribbean east of 72W due to Saharan air moving westward through the Caribbean. However, scattered low-topped showers are seen across the eastern Greater Antilles and throughout the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the rest of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are seen across the rest of the basin. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A tropical wave passing Jamaica will exit the western Caribbean Friday. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean late today, cross the central Caribbean through Sunday and into the western Caribbean Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered thunderstorms across the western Atlantic are seen from 22N-31N between 73W-80W due to an upper-level trough is extending from central Cuba to the Bahamas and along with influence from Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a front north of the forecast waters along with a pre-frontal trough from 30N57W to 26N61W. These features are bringing convection into the area from 25N- 31N between 50W- 63W. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high near 37N28W. High pressure will dominate into the weekend, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes, except north of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evenings. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR