352 AXNT20 KNHC 091045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1019 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is producing disorganized showers and has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This disturbance is expected to move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is over water, conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while it progresses westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving off the coast of western Africa with axis along 18W south of 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted from 06N- 12N between 17W- 19W. A tropical wave in the Atlantic extends its axis along 30W south of 17N, moving W around 10 kt. There is currently no significant convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is along 42W south of 13N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen with this wave mainly from 06N-12N between 41W-45W. Over the next few days, convective activity with gusty winds will likely increase along the wave and is expected over the Windward Islands by Friday. These conditions are expected to spread over the eastern Caribbean through the weekend as the wave moves west. A tropical wave extends its axis along 60W south of 16N, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this feature from 11N-16N between 58W-64W. An increase in shower activity is expected over the east Caribbean with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from 05N- 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen just off the coast of Haiti, otherwise no significant convection is seen at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N34W. The ITCZ begins near 09N34W to 09N41W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 08N43W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection discussed in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 04N-09N between 20W-26W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information on the system that will potentially impact the northern Gulf this week. A low to mid-level trough prevails across the NE Gulf which continues to enhance convection mostly in the north-central and northeastern Gulf. A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low in central Georgia near 32N84W to 28N81W, right along the west coast of Florida. Convection is seen from 23N- 30N between 81W- 90W. Isolated thunderstorms continue in the southern Bay of Campeche, S of 21N and W of 93W. The rest of the Gulf is under a weak surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high near 23N87W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf into mid week. A surface low will move from Georgia to the northeast Gulf Wednesday where it will slowly intensify through Saturday, possibly into a tropical cyclone, as it drifts westward through the north central and northwest Gulf through late Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean. Low to mid-level troughing prevails across the northern Caribbean which is enhancing convection over Cuba and Jamaica, as well as their adjacent waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 17N-22N between 75W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama to Nicaragua, enhanced by the monsoon trough, south of 12N and west of 75W. A surface trough is seen in the Mona Passage between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, from 20N67W to 16N69W. Scattered showers are seen moving along Puerto Rico toward Hispaniola. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean with light winds in the NW basin, and gentle to moderate trades in the rest of the area. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A tropical wave south of Hispaniola will weaken as it exits the western Gulf through Thursday. Another tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean today, the central Caribbean Wednesday, and exit the western Caribbean by Friday into Saturday. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Thursday and move through the central Caribbean through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad low to mid-level troughing in the SE US is drawing moisture toward Florida, Bahamas, and west Atlantic. Convection is seen along the northern Bahamas from 23N-28N between 77W-80W. There is another area of convection seen in the Atlantic from 23N-27N between 61W-67W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N34W to 28N47W with isolated thunderstorms beginning to fire off along the boundary, mostly between 40W-47W. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 28N52W. Moderate southerly winds are seen in the west Atlantic north of 26N and east of 70W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are also seen north of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through early Wednesday over the offshore waters northeast of Florida due to a deepening low over Georgia that will move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate across the region, supporting gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except north of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR