000 AXNT20 KNHC 090545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is producing disorganized showers and has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This disturbance is expected to move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is over water, conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while it progresses westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. Additionally, strong to near gale force winds and building seas are expected for the north-central and northwest Gulf early Thursday through Saturday associated with this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving over West Africa with axis along 17W south of 17N, moving W around 15-20 kt. Showers are noted from 05N- 11N between 13W- 18W. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends its axis along 30W south of 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are present south of 11N. A tropical wave is along 41W south of 14N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen with this wave mainly from 06N-11N between 39W-43W. In a few days, convection will likely increase along the wave and showers with gusty winds will be expected over the Windward Islands on Friday. These conditions are expected to spread over the eastern Caribbean through the weekend as the wave moves west. A tropical wave extends its axis along 59W south of 15N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this feature from 09N-14N between 56W-62W. An increase in shower activity is expected over the east Caribbean with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 68W from 06N- 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The environment is fairly dry and no significant convection is noted with this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 20N16W to 08N38W. The ITCZ begins near 07N42W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection discussed in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 04N-10N between 18W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the special features section for more information on the system that will potentially impact the northern Gulf this week. A low to mid-level trough prevails across the NE Gulf which continues to enhance nighttime convection mostly in the Gulf now. A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low in south Georgia near 31N84W to 27N85W. Convection is seen from 26N-29N between 83W-86W. Some isolated thunderstorms have moved off the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche with some thunderstorm activity moving off the Mexican coast into adjacent waters in the southern Bay of Campeche. Most of this activity is south of 20N and east of 95W. The rest of the Gulf is under a weak surface ridging anchored by a 1015 mb high near 24N91W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin. There are some moderate east-southeasterly winds in the western Bay of Campeche. Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf into mid week. A surface low will move from Georgia to the northeast Gulf on Wednesday where it will slowly intensify through Friday as it drifts westward towards SE Texas. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas are expected for the north-central and northwest Gulf early Thursday through Saturday associated with the low. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean. Low to mid-level troughing prevails across the northwest Caribbean which is enhancing convection over Cuba and Jamaica, as well as their adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is also noted just west of Haiti. This activity is seen from 17N-21N between 73W-80W. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed in the Gulf of Honduras, mostly west of 87W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama to Nicaragua, south of 12N and west of 79W. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean with light winds in the NW basin, and gentle to moderate trades in the rest of the area. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Tuesday with strong winds affecting mainly the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this wave will affect the SE basin through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad low to mid-level troughing in the SE US is drawing moisture toward Florida, Bahamas, and west Atlantic. Most of the convection from earlier this evening has dissipated with some isolated thunderstorms seen in the northern Bahamas. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the Atlantic from 22N-26N between 60W-66W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N36W to 28N46W with no significant convection associated with it. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 28N38W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds are seen in the west Atlantic north of 28N between 73W-78W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are also seen north of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through early Wednesday over the offshore waters northeast of Florida due to a deepening low over Georgia that will move into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate across the region, supporting gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR