000 AXNT20 KNHC 082350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving over West Africa with axis along 15W from 05N-17N. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion of the wave mainly south of 09N. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends its axis along 28W from 17N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are present south of 11N. A tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is along the back edge of a large area of African dust, therefore no significant convection is noted with this feature at this time. In a few days, convection is likely to increase along the wave and gusty showers will be expected over the Windward Islands on Friday. These conditions spread over the eastern Caribbean through the weekend as the wave moves west. A tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 15N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered convection is from 09N-13N between 54W- 61W. An increase in shower activity is expected over the east Caribbean with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W from 07N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The environment is fairly dry, therefore only isolated showers are noted along the wave's axis. A tropical wave extends along 90W, from 18N southward. This wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the Yucatan Peninsula and the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 10N15W to 07N33W. The ITCZ begins near 07N33W to 07N36W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 08N56W. Aside from the convection discussed in the section above, no significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A low to mid-level trough prevails across the far eastern Gulf enhancing convection over the Florida Peninsula mainly east of 85W. A surface trough extends over the NE Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to 27N84W. The remainder of the Gulf is under weak surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 24N92W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds to near gale force are expected in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week along with squally weather and high seas, regardless of tropical cyclone formation. If the system were to become a tropical storm, then higher winds and seas would occur. Heavy rainfall is possible along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf coast later this week. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean. Low to mid-level troughing prevails across the northwest Caribbean enhancing convection over Cuba and Jamaica, as well as their adjacent waters. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the whole area. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean through the next few days. A tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean on Tue with strong winds and scattered moderate convection. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad low to mid-level troughing in the SE US is drawing moisture toward Florida, Bahamas, and west Atlantic. At this time, scattered moderate convection prevails west of 76W. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N36W to 30N40W, then transitions to a stationary front from that point to 27N51W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through early Wed over the offshore waters northeast Florida due to a deepening low over Georgia that will move into the NE Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will dominate across the region, supporting gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA