000 AXNT20 KNHC 072345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from 04N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the wave's axis. Another tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic, with axis from 12N31W to a 1012 mb low near 07N32W to 02N32W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers prevail in the wave's environment between 28W-35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 04N-14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N- 12N between 48W-53W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W from 06N-20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted inland over South America. Dry Saharan air is limiting any shower activity at this time across the part of the wave than prevails over the ocean. A slight increase in showers is possible tonight into Monday for the Lesser Antilles and E Caribbean. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from 20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 11N between 77W-84W, affecting mainly Central America and the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 07N23W to 08N37W. The ITCZ begins near 08N37W to 09N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, no significant shower activity is noted. GULF OF MEXICO... Low to mid level troughing is over the NE Gulf and northern Florida, enhancing scattered showers and tstorms across the eastern half of the basin. To the west, a 1018 mb surface high is centered near 28N92W. A mid-level ridge over the NW Gulf is leading to subsidence and mostly fair weather in that region. Weak high pressure will dominate the basin into mid week. A low pressure is expected to develop in the NE basin on Wed. The low will intensify gradually through Thu night when it is expected to generate strong to near gale force winds. Further intensification is possible on Fri along with gale force winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently over the basin and the one approaching. An upper level diffluent flow prevails across Central America enhancing convection at this time. Fair weather prevails across the Caribbean waters as the atmosphere remains relatively dry and Saharan dust is also noted. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except between 65W-78W, where fresh to strong winds prevail. High pressure north of the area will continue supporting fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean through the next several days. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles by Tue morning with strong to near-gale force winds affecting mainly the Windward Islands. Showers and tstms associated with this wave will affect the SE basin through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. Scattered showers prevail across the west Atlantic mainly west of 75W. To the east, a 1021 mb surface high is centered near 29N64W. A frontal system entered the central Atlantic near 40W, analyzed as a cold front from 31N41W to 29N45W to 28N54W, then as a weakening warm front from that point to 31N58W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. High pressure across the region will support gentle to moderate breezes across the area through the forecast period, except for the NW waters where moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected. Low pressure may develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by mid week, allowing southerly winds in the west Atlantic to increase to strong category. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA