000 AXNT20 KNHC 071712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 04N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-11N between 18W-23W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 12N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1012 mb low is near 08N along the wave. Scattered moderate showers are from 04N-08N between 26W-38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 14N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 09N-12N between 45W-51W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57/58W from 05N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are just inland over northeastern South America, but dry Saharan air is limiting any shower activity at this time along the remainder of the wave. A slight increase in showers is possible tonight into Monday for the Lesser Antilles and E Caribbean. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 80W from 20N southward to 05N in the East Pacific. Movement is W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen at the northern end of the wave from 17.5N-20N between the Windward Passage and 83W. Additional scattered activity is seen in the far SW Caribbean south of 10N, where the wave axis intersects the East Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 08N22W to 08N37W. The ITCZ begins near 08N37W to 09N46W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 10N49W to 10N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, no other significant shower activity is noted. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Low to mid level troughing is over the NE Gulf and northern Florida. As a result, scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mainly from 24N-30N, between the Gulf Coast of Florida and 88W. A 1018 mb surface high is near 26N90W. A mid-level ridge over the NW Gulf and SE Texas is leading to subsidence and mostly fair weather in that region. A trough of low pressure over the SE United States is forecast to move S into the NE Gulf of Mexico by Wed, where a broad area of low pressure is likely to form. Thereafter, some tropical development is possible while the low meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the western Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence and upper-level divergence are over the NW Caribbean to the east of this upper trough. Enhanced moisture is seen in the TPW product over the western Caribbean along and ahead of the tropical wave along 80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize, as well as over portions of eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. The atmosphere is somewhat drier over the eastern and central Caribbean. Some African dust is noted in this area, although the dust is not particularly dense. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong tradewinds across mainly the south central Caribbean through the next several days, modulated by a series of tropical waves moving through the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low to mid level troughing over northern Florida along with upper-level divergence off the coast of Georgia and northern Florida is leading to scattered tstorms north of 27N and west of 77W. Scattered tstorms also extend from the NW Bahamas to the N coast of Cuba and westward through the Florida Straits. Farther E, a surface trough from 29N63W to 27N68W is producing isolated showers and tstorms along its axis. A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N40W to 29N46W to 27.5N53W, then stationary to 28N59W. Scattered showers are along and within 60 nm ahead of the front east of 48W. West of 48W, only isolated showers are along the front. High pressure near 32N52W will support gentle to moderate breezes north of 22N through mid week, with moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong in the late evenings. Low pressure may develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by mid week, allowing southerly winds to increase off northeast Florida Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen