000 AXNT20 KNHC 071047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 15N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 12N between 16W and 22W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 03N to 19N between Africa and 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 12N southward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 08N along the wave. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 08N between 25W and 37W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 01N to 11N between 22W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 14N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to 11N between 40W and 50W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 18N southward. Broken low level to middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 20N southward between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends is along 75W/76W, in the Jamaica Channel, from 19N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Windward Channel. The wave will produce strong trade winds today and tonight, along and to the east of the wave, as the wave moves across the Caribbean Sea, before reaching Central America on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W 08N27W and to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N35W to 10N46W, and to 10N52W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 13N southward from 60W eastward, not counting any precipitation that is related to the tropical waves. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. The only area that does not have the upper level anticyclonic wind flow is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough passes through the area of the upper Texas Gulf coast, in the coastal waters of Texas, and in the coastal waters of Mexico, toward 20N along the coast of Mexico, near the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb high pressure center is in the SW corner of Louisiana. Broad surface low pressure is inland, in the SE U.S.A. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, from 23N northward from 90W eastward. Weak high pressure will dominate the basin into the middle of the week. It is possible that low pressure may develop in the NE Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to W/SW Guatemala. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from NW Cuba to the eastern part of Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is to the W/NW of the line that runs from the Windward Channel to the SE coast of Nicaragua. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for an upper level trough that runs from Puerto Rico to 15N64W to NE Venezuela. High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds, mainly across the south central Caribbean Sea, through the next several days. Everything will be modulated by a series of tropical waves that will be moving through the Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface low pressure in the SE U.S.A. is drawing moisture toward Florida and the Bahamas and the NW part of the Atlantic Ocean. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba northward from 70W westward. A cold front passes through 32N42W to 28N50W to 27N56W to 28N59W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes through 32N37W 27N50W 25N60W. A surface trough is along 30N61W to 28N65W to 26N69W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N to 29N between 63W and 66W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. High pressure along 27N/28N will support gentle to moderate breezes north of 22N through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong in the late evenings. It is possible that low pressure may develop in the NE Gulf of Mexico by mid week, allowing southerly winds to increase off northeast Florida on Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt