000 AXNT20 KNHC 070534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 15N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 12N between 15W and 18W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 05N to 20N between Africa and 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 11N southward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 08N along the wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 08N between 29W and 34W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 03N to 11N between 22W and 35W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 18N southward. Broken low level to middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 20N southward between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from SW Haiti to 14N76W to 08N76W in Colombia. Scattered strong rainshowers were occurring just to the west of Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela and in N Colombia near 10N74W, during the last six hours or so. The cloud top temperatures have been warming and the precipitation has been dissipating/weakening with time. The wave will produce strong trade winds on Sunday and Sunday night, along and to the east of the wave, as the wave moves across the Caribbean Sea, before reaching Central America on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N25W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from 07N34W to 07N45W, and to French Guinea near 04N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 12N between 41W and 43W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 13N southward from 60W eastward, not counting any precipitation that is related to the tropical waves. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. The only area that does not have the upper level anticyclonic wind flow is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough passes through the area of the upper Texas Gulf coast, in the coastal waters of Texas, and in the coastal waters of Mexico, toward 20N along the coast of Mexico, near the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N91W. Broad surface low pressure is inland, in the SE U.S.A. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N northward from 90W eastward. Convective debris clouds, from earlier rainshowers, are within 90 nm of the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A weak surface ridge will dominate the basin the entire period. An area of low pressure in the SE CONUS supports scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight in the E Gulf of Mexico. Another area of low pressure will develop in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening, increasing the wind speeds to near gale-force on Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to W/SW Guatemala. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from NW Cuba to the eastern part of Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is to the NW of the line that runs from the Windward Channel to eastern Honduras. Rainshowers are possible in the Mona Passage. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for an upper level trough that runs from Puerto Rico to 15N64W to NE Venezuela. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean Sea through Thursday, pulsing to near gale-force during the overnight hours off the coast of Colombia through Sunday. A new tropical wave will enter the E Caribbean Sea on Sunday, and it will move to the central part of the Caribbean Sea on Monday night. A second wave will enter the E Caribbean Sea on Monday night into Tuesday, with rainshowers and winds to near gale-force associated with it. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low level to mid level trough near northern Florida is drawing moisture toward the area. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N66W to 26N80W. A cold front passes through 32N44W to 29N50W to 28N57W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes through 32N37W 27N50W 25N60W 32N64W. A surface trough is along 30N61W, to a 1021 mb low pressure center that is near 29N64W, to 27N67W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 25N northward between 60W and 70W. High pressure will dominate the region during the entire period. Low pressure, developing in the SE CONUS on Sunday, will meander in this region, supporting moderate to fresh southerlies in the NW waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected off Hispaniola late tonight, in the wake of a tropical wave that is moving through the central Caribbean Sea. The winds will resume N of Hispaniola on Tuesday, as a new tropical wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt