616 AXNT20 KNHC 061044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave, currently over western Africa, extends its axis along 13W from 05N-13N. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 06N between 12W-16W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W and south of 12N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N-11N between 36W-42W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 50W and south of 15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this feature at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W and southward of 19N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the wave's axis, particularly north of 17N affecting the Mona Passage and Dominican Republic. The wave will continue to enhance shower activity for the ABC Islands and Hispaniola through today. The wave will also strengthen the trade winds across most of the Caribbean today as it passes across the forecast area, before reaching Central America on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 10N19W to 07N28W. The ITCZ begins near 07N28W to 07N38W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 07N41W to 08N49W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 05N-10N between 20W-26W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep-layered ridging covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb surface high is near 30N92W. To the southwest, a surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 23N93W to 19N93W. Light to gentle easterly winds prevail across the basin. The eastern Gulf has scattered showers prevailing, particularly east of 88W. Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the weekend with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. A weak frontal boundary will meander Tue and Wed over the northeast Gulf where broad low pressure may develop. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, with strong winds north of Colombia. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail will across the central Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to near gale force during the overnight hours off of Colombia. The tropical wave will continue moving west across the central Caribbean today, then reach Central America on Sun. The next significant tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles Mon night and reach 70W by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical waves in the Atlantic. A weak 1021 mb low is centered near 29N64W, with surface trough extending from the low to 29N68W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 31N35W. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected off Hispaniola late tonight in the wake of an active tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA