000 AXNT20 KNHC 060521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave, currently over western Africa, has been introduced to the analysis, with axis along 10W from 05N-13N. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 10N between 10W-13W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 36W and south of 12N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N-10N between 36W-41W. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 46W and south of 15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this feature at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70/71W and southward of 19N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the wave's axis, particularly north of 17N affecting Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage, and Dominican Republic. The wave will continue to enhance shower activity for the ABC Islands and Hispaniola through early Saturday. The wave will also strengthen the trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Saturday as it passes across the forecast area, before reaching Central America on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N28W. The ITCZ begins near 07N28W to 07N36W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ resumes again west of another tropical wave from 08N47W to 05N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 05N-10N between 20W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep-layered ridging covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb surface high is near 29N89W. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N85W to 25N86W. Light to gentle easterly winds prevail across the basin. The eastern Gulf has scattered showers prevailing, particularly east of the surface trough. High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf by late Monday, then drift SE and linger through Wednesday, where broad low pressure may develop. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, with strong winds north of Colombia. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail will across the central Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to near gale force during the overnight hours off of Colombia. The active tropical wave along 70W will continue moving across the central Caribbean today, then reach Central America on Sunday. The next significant tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles by Monday night and reach 70W Tuesday evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical waves in the Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 30N75W to 29N79W with scattered showers. To the east, a weak 1021 mb low is centered near 30N64W, with surface trough extending from the low to 29N68W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N37W. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build modestly westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles today as an active tropical wave moves through the central Caribbean, and then again Tuesday through Wednesday associated with the next significant tropical wave. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA