000 AXNT20 KNHC 051719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 118 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the analysis at 05/1200 UTC along 33W from 02N-12N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave shows up in model diagnostics, CIRA LPW imagery and long loop IR satellite images. Scattered showers are seen from 05N-08N between 29W-36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 17N southward, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are from 04N-08N between 36W-48W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65/66W from 05N-20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are within 150 nm either side of the wave axis. This includes Puerto Rico and vicinity. Scattered moderate convection is seen over NE Venezuela just south and west of Trinidad. The wave will enhance shower activity for the ABC Islands and Hispaniola tonight into early Sat. The wave will also strengthen the trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Saturday as it passes across the forecast area, before reaching Central America on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N20W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins near 07N35W to 07N40W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 06N44W to 05N52W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from 06N-13N between the coast of Africa and 21W. Elsewhere along and within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 29W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present. Along and north of the ITCZ west of 50W, scattered moderate convection is seen near the coast of South America from 04N-07N between 50W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep-layered ridging covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb surface high is near 27N91W, with mostly fair weather over the western Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed over the NE Gulf of Mexico from 29N85W to 25N86W, with scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the eastern Gulf. High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. A weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf late Mon, then drift SE and linger into mid-week, where broad low pressure may develop. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Mid-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen north of 19N between 76W-85W. Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail across the central Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to near gale force during the overnight hours off of Colombia. The active tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean tonight, then Central America on Sun. Fresh trades and seas to around 8 ft will linger across the tropical N Atlc waters today east of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N71W to near Grand Bahama Island. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the trough as well as over portions of the NE Bahamas, Florida Straits and South Florida. Another surface trough is from 31N62W to 29N65W. Scattered showers are near the trough and east of the trough along 30N-32N between 55W-65W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under a ridge, anchored by a 1027 mb high near 32N40W. High pressure across the central Atlc will build westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of the Greater Antilles today and Sat as an active tropical wave moves through the central Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen