000 AXNT20 KNHC 050539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15N37W 09N36W 04N35W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 12N between 30W and 37W. The wave shows up well in model diagnostics and the TPW product. A well defined Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 19N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N to 18N between 60W and 66W. The forecast is for the wave to impact Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands on Friday, bringing enhanced rainshowers and thunderstorms with gusty winds. It is likely that moisture that is associated with this wave may reach Hispaniola late Friday into Saturday. This wave also is forecast to strengthen the trade winds across most of the basin through Saturday, as it passes across the forecast area, and then reach Central America on Sunday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N24W to 09N30W and 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 08N36W 05N48W, and into the coastal areas of Brazil near 03N52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 11N from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 28N91W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the east of 88W, and along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Weak high pressure will continue in the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Expect gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds in the Gulf of Mexico. A weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf late on Monday. The front will drift SE, and linger through Tuesday, where broad low pressure may develop. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the north and northwest of the line that runs from 12N in Nicaragua to eastern sections of Hispaniola. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N northward from the Windward Passage to the Yucatan Peninsula. This area mainly consists of the Windward Passage, and the coastal waters of Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across south central parts of the Caribbean Sea tonight. An active tropical wave is moving into the far eastern Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds will increase across most of the basin through late Sunday, as the tropical wave reaches along 75W Saturday morning, then reaches Central America on Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds, and seas to 8 feet, will linger in the tropical N Atlantic waters from tonight through Friday, behind the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough is at the SW part of a dissipating stationary front, along 31N61W, to a 1019 mb low pressure center that is near 30N65W, to 28N68W. A separate surface trough is along 29N71W to 28N74W to 26N75W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 32N50W 31N60W, to the Windward Passage. The current cold front will drift NW and dissipate slowly through Friday. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will build westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of the Greater Antilles on Friday and Saturday, as an active tropical wave moves through the central Caribbean Sea. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt