000 AXNT20 KNHC 041021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 20N southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is from 05N to 08N between 30W and 40w. The wave shows up well in model diagnostics and the CIRA layered precipitable water images. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 18N southward. The TPW images were showing a large area of enhanced moisture with this wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 50W and 57W. This wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean Sea from Thursday through Friday, bringing enhanced rainshowers with thunder and gusty winds. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 09N19W and 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 07N30W 05N44W and 06N52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 08N13W to 07N24W to 07N30W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 06N30W to 06N36W, and within 60 nm on either side of 06N38W 06N43W, from 07N to 09N between 36W and 39W, and from 05N to 08N between 50W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 28N89W. Earlier areas of precipitation have weakened and dissipated. A lone area of scattered moderate rainshowers is from 27N to 28N between 95W and 96W, about 50 nm off the middle Texas coast. Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the upcoming weekend, resulting in gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico. A trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoon and move westward into the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing a brief period of fresh to locally strong winds to the south central Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the north and northwest of the line that runs from the coast of central Nicaragua to Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas of the Windward Passage, and the coastal waters of Cuba on the Caribbean Sea between 76W and 84W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean, from Dominica near 15N to 20N between 57W and 64W. The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, to 08N79W, across southern sections of Panama, beyond 09N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are off the coast of NE Costa Rica. Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through early Thursday. A tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea next, and strengthen the trade winds everywhere, except for the NW part of the basin, through Saturday. This tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic Ocean waters tonight, enter the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, reach 70W on Friday morning, reach 80W late on Saturday, then move into Central America on Sunday afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward between 50W and 70W. An area of upper level cyclonic wind flow is near 25N64W, surrounded by the other individual areas of upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow also is from 74W westward. A stationary front passes through 32N57W to 29N63W. The stationary front is dissipating along 29N63W 27N67W 26N70W. A surface trough continues from 26N70W to 25N72W to 23N72W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, elsewhere from 20N northward between Africa and 53W. The current stationary front will move northward, while dissipating through Thursday. High pressure will build into the northern waters from Thursday through Friday night, and persist through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of Hispaniola on Friday and Saturday, as a tropical wave moves through the central Caribbean Sea. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt