000 AXNT20 KNHC 032320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 720 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30W from 03N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N-07N between 28W-34W. The wave shows up well in model diagnostics and the CIRA layered precipitable water product. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 03N-17N, moving W around 20 kt. The TPW product shows a large area of enhanced moisture with this wave. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 09N-12N between 46W-59W. This wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean Thursday through Friday, bringing enhanced showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 08N22W. The ITCZ begins near 08N22W to 07N28W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 06N32W to 06N51W. Aside from shower and thunderstorm activity associated with tropical waves as described above, scattered moderate convection is seen along and just N of the ITCZ between 35W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep-layered ridging prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface high of 1018 mb is analyzed at 28N89W. A small area of scattered showers and isolated tstorms is found in the west- central Gulf from 23N-26N, west of 93W. Plenty of thunderstorm activity is seen along the immediate coast and inland due to afternoon heating over Florida, western Louisiana and Texas. However, out over the open waters of the Gulf, most of the basin is free of any significant showers or tstorms. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday morning showed light to gentle winds over the NE and central Gulf due to the high pressure, with moderate SE winds over the southwestern Gulf. Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the upcoming weekend, resulting in gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the afternoon and move westward into the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing a brief period of fresh to locally strong winds to the S central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level ridging covers much of the Caribbean, along with dry Saharan air. Fair weather prevails across most of the open waters of the Caribbean. However, due to afternoon heating of land, scattered showers and tstorms are seen near and over Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Also, in the far SW Caribbean, numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen south of 12N west of 80W just offshore the coast of Costa Rica and Panama. This is associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough and a tropical wave west of the area along 86W. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday morning showed fresh to strong winds in the south-central and SW Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail across the south central Caribbean through early Thu before a well organized tropical wave moves into the eastern Caribbean and strengthens the trades across all but NW portions of the basin through Sat. This tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Thu, reach 70W Fri morning, reach 80W late Sat, then move into Central America Sun afternoon. The wave will contain enhanced showers and tstorms during its trek across the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from 32N57W to 27N65W to 24N74W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 24N61W to 30N58W. Isolated showers prevail near the trough and front. Ridging prevails over the eastern and central Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 mb high near 34N35W. The stationary front extending from 32N57W to 24N74W will lift northward while dissipating through Thu. High pressure will build in northern waters Thu through Fri night, and persist through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of Hispaniola Fri and Sat as a tropical wave moves through the central Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen