000 AXNT20 KNHC 031653 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 29W south of 14N and is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently associated with this feature, seen from 06N-08N between 28W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along an axis of 51W south of 15N moving westward near 20 kt. This feature continues to be well defined on satellite and TPW also depicts a deep moisture area in addition to the inverted-v shape behind it. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen with this wave, from 07N-13N between 49W- 53W. This wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thursday through Friday, bringing enhanced showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from coast from Guinea- Bissau near 12N15W and continues to 08N21W. The ITCZ begins near 08N21W and continues to 07N28W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 07N29W to 06N50W. The ITCZ continues west of another tropical wave near 06N52W and continues to the coast of Suriname/Guyana near 06N57W. Aside from shower and thunderstorm activity associated with tropical waves as described above, scattered moderate convection is seen moving off the coast of Africa from 06N-09N between 11W-16W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are also seen along the ITCZ from 03N-09N between 36W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough continues to extend across Texas and northern Mexico. This is bringing strong upper-level southwest winds across the western Gulf, ushering in abundant moisture into the area. A mid-level ridge continues to be centered over the Gulf, with a 1017 mb surface high analyzed near 26N85W. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 19N95W. An area of strong thunderstorms continues to meander north in the western Gulf off the Mexican coast, from 22N- 24N between 96W- 98W. There is also an area of isolated thunderstorms in the central Gulf from 27N-29N between 87W-89W. Winds in the eastern Gulf are gentle to moderate out of the north, with light winds in the central basin. In the western Gulf, moderate southeasterly winds are observed. Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the upcoming weekend, resulting in gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day and move into the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong winds to the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends across the northeastern Caribbean southwestward into central America. Strong upper-level southwest to west winds are southeast of the trough. These winds are advecting abundant upper- level moisture in the form of broken high clouds across the eastern Caribbean. Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean well off the southern Cuban coast. Numerous strong thunderstorms are seen off the Panama and Costa Rica coastline from 09N-11N between 80W-83W. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Strong to near gale force winds are expected each night off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Thursday and Friday, then move into the central Caribbean Friday night, accompanied by gusty winds and rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp upper level trough is over the western Atlantic. At the surface, a stationary front is analyzed from 31N57W to 26N69W. A pre-frontal trough is seen from 31N57W to 23N61W. Thunderstorms are seen at the tail-end of the stationary front from 23N-27N between 64W-68W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen near the southern Bahamas. A trough is off the Florida coast from 30N78W to 25N79W, with no significant convection associated with it. Otherwise, a ridge sits across the rest of the basin, with a 1029 mb high near 33N33W with tranquil weather prevailing across the area. A stationary front extending 30N60W to 24N72W will lift northward while dissipating through Thursday. High pressure will build in northern waters Thursday through Friday night, and persist through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of Hispaniola Friday and Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR