000 AXNT20 KNHC 030605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 26W from 04N-20N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows an apparent northern mid-level vorticity on the wave near 14N26W. The latest TPW imagery animation continues to depict increasing moisture east of the wave's axis in an inverted-V shape. However since the wave is moving through stable environment, the observed moisture is rather capped allowing for only isolated showers and thunderstorms within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 04N-10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W from 03N- 17N is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Model diagnostics depict this wave very well. The TPW satellite animation shows a very deep moisture area, also in an inverted-V shape, behind this wave from 04N-15N between 40W-46W. Deep convection consisting of the scattered moderate to isolated intensity is increasing behind the wave from 06N-10N between 40W-45W. In addition, a trade wind surge trails this wave. This wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri, bringing enhanced showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 80W and south of 16N, is moving westward at about 17 kt. The majority of this wave is passing underneath a subsidence area denoting dry air present to the north and west of an upper-level trough. Both IR GOES-16 imagery and the TPW satellite animation show atmospheric moisture confined to south of 13N and between 76W and 80W, which is also the area where the eastern segment of the E Pacific monsoon trough is found. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within this area of moisture. The earlier tropical wave that was analyzed over Central America has advance into the eastern Pacific along 87W. Its northern portion extends to eastern El Salvador and the central part of Honduras. No shower or thunderstorm is occurring over these countries in direct association with this wave as dry air aloft behind the upper-level trough gradually advects westward over Honduras and Nicaragua ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from coastal Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 09N25W. Latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ west of the tropical along 26W at 08N28W and continues to just east of the tropical wave along 46W at 06N45W. The ITCZ resumes west of this same tropical wave at 06N47W and continues to near 05N52W. Aside from shower and thunderstorm activity associated with tropical waves as described above, scattered moderate to strong convection exists from 08N to 14N east of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 39W-42W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 34W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level troughing extends from central Texas to an upper-level low over north-central Mexico. Associated upper-level strong southwest winds cover far western Gulf. These winds continue to advect abundant moisture northward over the western Gulf. The earlier observed scattered moderate convection over the northwest has weakened and diminished in coverage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 25N between 89W-96W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 90W. Expect for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop again today over much of the western and north-central Gulf as deep moisture remains in place. This activity is expected to decrease some tonight and Thu as the aforementioned upper-level trough and low weaken. A weak high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf through the upcoming weekend, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day and move across the Bay of Campeche during the evening, bringing fresh to locally strong winds to the SW Gulf through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. An upper-level trough extends from well northeast of the Caribbean to across the northeastern Caribbean, then to a weak upper-level low at 17N71W and southwestward to a base at 10N81W. Strong upper-level southwest to west winds are southeast of the trough. These winds are advecting abundant upper-level moisture in the form of broken high clouds east-northeastward to across the across the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N and between 76W-65W. Dry sinking air is situated to the northwest of the upper-level trough to near 82W, where skies are relatively cloud free except for small pockets of scattered low clouds. This section of the Caribbean remains under the SE periphery of mid to upper-level ridging present over the central Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure in Colombia will support strong to near gale force winds each night off the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela through Sat. Moderate to fresh trades will continue elsewhere across the Caribbean the next several days. A tropical wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri, likely reaching the central Caribbean from Fri night into Sat. It will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Strong gusty winds can be expected with this activity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front was analyzed at 00Z along a position from near 32N55W to 30N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 28N67W and to 28.5N70W where it begins to dissipate to 31N75W. A rather sharp upper trough is over this cold front. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 30N58W to 29N61W to 26N70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed within 210 nm southeast of the front north of 29N and 120 nm southeast of the trough. Farther south a surface trough is approaching the Leeward Islands along a position from near 19N57W to 14N58W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough. Elsewhere, high pressure ridging covers the eastern Atlantic east of 50W, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 35N30W. The cold front and stationary front is forecast to dissipate by early this evening. High pressure will build over northern waters Thu through Sat night, which will support pulsing fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola each evening through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre