000 AXNT20 KNHC 022353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 735 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from 05N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows an increase in moisture behind the wave's axis. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the wave's axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 03N-17N is moving W at 15-20 kt. A trade wind surge trails the wave. Model diagnostics depict this wave very well, and TPW imagery shows a maximum in moisture content across the wave's environment mainly south of 15N. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm on either sides of the wave axis from 08N-11N. This wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri, bringing enhanced showers and tstorms with gusty winds. A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 77W and south of 16N, is moving W around 20 kt. Latest TPW imagery shows moisture in the wave's environment south of 15N and between 75W- 83W. Scattered showers are noted where the wave interacts with the monsoon trough mainly south of 10N. A tropical wave is over Central America with axis along 86W, extending S into the East Pacific. Scattered showers and tstorms are prevailing south of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from coastal Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 09N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N40W. The ITCZ resumes west a tropical wave near 05N46W to 04N52W. Aside from shower and tstorm activity associated with tropical waves as described above, scattered showers and tstorms are noted over Africa ahead of the next tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level troughing extends from central Texas to north-central Mexico. Persistent deep layered southerly winds to the east of the trough extend over the western Gulf of Mexico. These winds continue to advect abundant moisture northward over the western Gulf. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted over the northwest Gulf north of 26N and west of 90W. This activity will continue through tonight before drier conditions will decrease shower activity by Wed. A weak high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf through the upcoming weekend, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day and move across the Bay of Campeche during the evening, bringing fresh to locally strong winds to the SW Gulf through Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. Upper level ridging prevails across most of the basin supporting fair weather. The only area of shower activity prevails south of 10N between 78W-82W and is related to the EPAC's monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except south of 13N between 70W-80W, where fresh to strong winds prevail. The gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure in Colombia will support strong to near gale force winds each night off the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela through Saturday. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean the next several days. A tropical wave is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean by Thu through Fri, likely reaching the central Caribbean from Fri night into Sat. It will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Strong gusty winds can be expected with this activity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic. It is analyzed as a cold front from 31N59W to 28N69W, then as a stationary front from that point to 30N73W. The front becomes weak through 31N78W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N59W to 24N76W. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of this trough. Farther S, a surface trough is approaching the Leeward Islands, extending from 19N57W to 15N57W. Surface ridging covers the eastern Atlantic east of 50W, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 35N30W. The frontal system mentioned above will dissipate by Wed. High pressure will build over northern waters Thu through Sat night, which will support pulsing fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola each evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA