000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 20W from 05N to 22N is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 07N to 10N. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 39W from 03N to 17N is moving westward near 20 kt. A trade wind surge trails the wave. Model diagnostics depict this wave. The total precipitable water (TPW) imagery shows a maximum in moisture content across the wave axis from 04N to 11N and between 35W-40W. However, no deep convection is presently noted with this wave. Only isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the wave are seen from 03N to 09N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave with axis along 70W south of 16N is moving westward at about 20 kt. Latest TPW imagery shows moisture concentrated to the south of 14N between 67W and 74W. The wave is moving through an area of broken to overcast multilayered clouds and upper-level strong southwest winds that are in advance of an upper-level trough that is over the western Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south 14N between 66W and 71W. A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along roughly along 80W is moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is passing underneath an area of subsidence and dry air present north of 13N in association with a western Caribbean upper-level trough and low. The only moisture content with this wave is found in the usual far southwestern Caribbean area primarily south of 13N between 76W and 81W, where isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal of southwestern Senegal near its border with Guinea-Bissau at 12N17W and continues to 08N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N30W 05N37W. It resumes to the west of the tropical wave along 39W at 05N40W and to 04N51W. Aside from shower and thunderstorm activity associated with tropical waves as described above, only scattered moderate convection is seen within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W- 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low over central Mexico is embedded within a broad trough that stretches from Missouri to Texas and to the central region of Mexico. Strong upper-level winds to the east of the trough and low expand eastward to the western Gulf. These winds are spreading upper-level moisture in the form of mostly broken high clouds across the western and north-central Gulf areas. The total precipitable water imagery depicts abundant moisture over the much of the western and central Gulf, and is spreading northward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted west of 91W, and also north of 25N between 85W and 91W. With this moisture in place and along with atmospheric conditions becoming more unstable today, expect for the shower and thunderstorm activity to further increase through tonight and into Wed over the western and north-central Gulf waters. Some of this activity may be accompanied by strong gusty winds and rough seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected elsewhere over the Gulf through Wed. A weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 27N86W, with associated anticyclonic flow covering much of the Gulf. The weak high pressure will change little through the upcoming weekend. trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and move offshore across the Bay of Campeche during the evening hours, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds to the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic near 28N44W southwestward to the Mona Passage and eastern Dominican Republic, and from there it continues southwestward to a rather ill-defined upper-level low at 16N77W and to a base at 10N81W. Strong upper-level southwest to west winds are southeast of the trough. These winds are advecting abundant upper-level moisture in the form of broken high clouds east-northeastward to across the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 13N and between 66W and 62W. Dry sinking air is situated to the northwest of the upper-level trough to near 82W, where skies are relatively cloud free except for small pockets of scattered low clouds. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over northern Colombia was aided by the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough. This activity has weakened some over the past few hours. The pressure gradient, between North Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressures in northern Colombia, will support strong to near gale-force winds, pulsing each night off the coast of Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. High pressure will build north of the region Fri through Sat night, with the associated pressure gradient to bring strong east winds and building seas across much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean waters. A tropical wave, currently over eastern Atlantic as described above, is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Strong gusty winds can be expected with this activity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the waters that are from 25N northward from 54W westward. A cold front dipping southward extends from 32N64W to 31N70W and northwestward to north of the area at 32N73W. A trough out ahead of it extends from near 30N68W to 25N 73W. These features are being driven by a broad deep-layer trough that is gradually sliding eastward north of 26N and between 54W and 71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm either side of a line from 32N59W to 28N63W to 25N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of a line from 30N69W to 31N73W. The deep-layer trough will shift eastward through the next 24 to 48 hours, while the cold front will reach from near 32N60W to 28N60W by early this evening and become stationary. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds will precede the cold front today. Elsewhere, broad scale high pressure is the main feature. It is forecast to change little through the next 48 hours. The associated gradient between it and relatively lower pressure to the south, over the Caribbean Sea, will allow for east winds to pulse to fresh to locally strong speeds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola in the late afternoons and evenings through the upcoming weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre