000 AXNT20 KNHC 011030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force winds over the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight through the morning hours. Expect seas heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet near Colombia, and less than 8 feet in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface component, however, the wave is noticeable in the wave model diagnostics and TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted from 04N-08N between 29W-33W. A Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 60W from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection are within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 08N- 11N. An central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 73W from 19N southward, moving 10-15 kt. Dry air and subsidence prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time. TPW imagery also shows lack of moisture on either side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 11N19W. The ITCZ continues from 11N19W to 06N29W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 06N33W to 05N53W near the coast of Brazil. Excluding the convection near the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the monsoon trough from the coast of Guinea-Bissau to 18W, along the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 22W-29W, from 03N-07N between 33W-37W, and closer to the coast of Brazil from 05N-08N between 51W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation prevails across the western Gulf while ridging is in place across the eastern Gulf. The upper level southerly flow will continue to bring tropical moisture into the Gulf enhancing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf from 19N-24N between 94W-97W and scattered showers in the Bay of Campeche and the eastern Gulf W of 90W. Besides the gusty winds from the convection, light to moderate east to southeast winds prevails across much of the basin. Weak high pressure will remain over the region through the week. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche during the evening hours and into the morning through Thu, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening and overnight hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the central Gulf and over SW Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche will shift to the northern Gulf areas by late Tue. This activity may be accompanied by strong gusty winds, possible frequent lightning and at times, rough seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave currently moving across the Caribbean and the Gale warning in effect. Upper level ridge controls the western Caribbean while an east to west trough extends from the Atlantic through the central Caribbean Sea. TPW shows a lack of low level moisture across much of the basin with the exception of higher moisture content is present extending from the Gulf of Honduras to Cuba. However, drier air continues to move westward into the western Caribbean limiting the convection development in the region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua associated to the Pacific monsoon trough. Some scattered showers are seen near the ABC Islands from 10N-13N between 63W-70W. Elsewhere, due to the presence of dry air and subsidence, no significant convection is noted in the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail across the basin with strong to gale force tonight over the central and SW Caribbean Sea. The combination of a a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower than typical low pressure over northern Colombia is currently allowing for minimal gale force winds to exist just offshore Colombia along with high seas. These winds will diminish to just below gale force later this morning. However, the strong gradient will continue to allow for strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through the remainder of the week, with moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic. This is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 26N-30N between 60W-74W. Further east, a weakening stationary front extends from 30N47W to 26N57W, and another dissipating stationary front extends from 31N-36N between 26N41W. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 42N20W. Light to gentle tradewinds prevail north of 18N, while moderate to strong winds are noted south of 18N. A relatively weak high pressure ridge will remain along 24N through Wed before shifting northward to near 27N by late on Thu. A weak cold front will move across the waters N of 27N tonight into Tue, then stall from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas by early Tue evening. The front will slowly dissipate through Wed night. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southwest winds are expected over the northeast forecast waters this afternoon and tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are well ahead of the front N of 27N and E of 76W. This activity will gradually shift east- southeastward through early on Wed before decreasing as it lifts northward Wed through Fri night with the remnants of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres