000 AXNT20 KNHC 010627 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 227 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force winds over the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight through early Monday morning. Expect seas heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet near Colombia, and less than 8 feet in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface component, however, the wave is noticeable in the wave model diagnostics and TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted from 04N-08N between the coast of Africa and 25W-28W. An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 58W from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 06N-12N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 69W from 19N southward, moving 10-15 kt. Dry air and subsidence prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time. TPW imagery also shows lack of moisture on either side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 07N25W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near 06N28W to 05N40W to 05N51W. Excluding the convection in the proximity of the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 03N-07N between 30W-37W and closer to the coast of Brazil from 05N-07N between 46W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation prevails across the western Gulf while ridging is in place across the eastern Gulf. The upper level southerly flow will continue to bring tropical moisture into the central and eastern Gulf enhancing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Convection extends from the Bay of Campeche north to 27N and west of 92W to the coast of FL. On the western Gulf, no significant convection is seen at this time except near the coast of Mexico and south Texas. Besides the gusty winds from convection, light to gentle east to southerly winds prevails across much of the basin. A trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong NE winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. Ample deep moisture will continue to spread from the northwestward Caribbean toward the southern and SW Gulf through at least Tue, leading to an increase of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave currently moving across the Caribbean and the Gale warning in effect. Upper level ridge controls the western Caribbean while an east to west trough extends from the Atlantic through the central Caribbean Sea. TPW shows low level moisture across much of the basin with the exception of the northwest Caribbean showing higher moisture content from the Gulf of Honduras to Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 19N to 22N near western Cuba. Elsewhere, due to the presence of dry air and subsidence, no other significant convection is noted in the basin. Some scattered showers are seen near the ABC Islands but this is associated to the nearby Atlantic tropical wave along 58W. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail across the basin with strong to gale force tonight over the central and SW Caribbean Sea tonight. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres over northern Colombia will support minimal gale force winds tonight just offshore Colombia along with high seas. This gradient will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through the week, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean will continue to spread northwestern toward the southern Gulf of Mexico through early Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of 80W, affecting the north central coast of FL, the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters to 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N47W to 26N57W with scattered showers in the vicinity. Further east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N35W to 26N41W. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 41N21W. Light to gentle tradewinds prevail north of 18N, while moderate to strong winds are noted south of 18N. A relatively weak high pres ridge will remain along 24N through the early part of the week before shifting northward to 26N/27N Wed night through the end of the week. A weak cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Mon and Mon night, then stall from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas Tue afternoon. A weak pressure pattern will persist N of 23N by mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres