246 AXNT20 KNHC 302327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect for tonight and the early part of Monday morning: NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W. A strong surface pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure in Colombia will contribute to the gale-force winds, in the Gulf of Venezuela and off the Colombian coast. Expect sea heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet near Colombia, and less than 8 feet in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 17N southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is from 04N to 10N between 10W and 20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 16N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward between 54W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 20N southward, moving into the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this wave. Dry air and subsidence prevail near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W to 18N19W. The ITCZ is along 08N17W 06N27W 05N33W 06N45W, to the coast of French Guiana near 06N53W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N13W to 06N25W to 06N34W to 06N45W to 07N52W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in central Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico and interior sections of Mexico between 90W and 106W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. Scattered strong rainshowers are in the SW part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers extend from the rest of the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula northward for about 330 nm between 87W and 91W. Other widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N southward, into the Yucatan Channel. A comparatively flat surface pressure pattern spans the Gulf of Mexico, with not much gradient. Ample deep moisture will continue to spread from the NW Caribbean Sea toward the southern and SW Gulf of Mexico through at least Tuesday. This will lead to an increase in rainshowers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and rough seas. A trough will develop each afternoon in the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move offshore, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong NE winds to the waters that are off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a broad east-to-west oriented trough, spans the Caribbean Sea, from 12N northward from 80W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the central sections of Hispaniola. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in Cuba between 76W and 82W, and in the NW corner of the island. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from 82W westward. The NW corner of the Caribbean Sea is at the eastern edge of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow that is in the Gulf of Mexico. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, 10N78W, beyond 08N83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the waters and coastal plains, from 12N southward from 74W westward. A strong pressure gradient, between the Bermuda high and low pres in northern Colombia, will support minimal gale-force winds tonight, just offshore Colombia, along with high seas. This gradient also will support strong to near gale-force winds in much of the central and SW Caribbean Sea through the week, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Rainshowers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea will continue to spread northwestward, toward the southern Gulf of Mexico through early Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the waters that are from 25N northward from 60W westward. The surface pressure pattern is weak and flat, with little gradient. An east-to-west oriented upper level ridge is in the area of the precipitation. A cold front passes through 32N47W to 29N52W and 27N57W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N to 28N between 56W and 60W. A stationary front passes through 32N37W to 27N41W. Rainshowers are possible within 30 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N36W to 28N40W. A relatively weak ridge will remain along 24N through the early part of the week, before shifting northward to 26N/27N, from Wednesday night through the end of the week. A weak cold front will move across the waters N of 27N on Monday and Monday night, and then stall from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon. A weak pressure pattern will persist N of 23N by the middle of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt