000 AXNT20 KNHC 301732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force winds over the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight. Expect sea heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet near Colombia, and less than 8 feet in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from 01N-15N, moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface component, however, the wave is noticeable in the wave model diagnostics and TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted from 05N-10N between the coast of Africa and 23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 56W from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N southward. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W from 20N southward, moving 10-15 kt. Dry air and subsidence prevails in the wave's environment inhibiting convection at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa along 19N to 18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 07N53W. Excluding convection near the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted near the ITCZ between 32W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough prevails across the western Gulf. Upper level southerly flow continues to bring tropical moisture into the central and eastern Gulf enhancing scattered moderate convection. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 22N89W to 18N94W with scattered showers. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted over the Yucatan Channel reaching the south central portion of the basin. This activity will continue moving northward through this evening. Weak high pressure will build over the NE Gulf through early next week. To the south, a trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. Ample deep moisture will continue to spread from the northwestward Caribbean toward the southern and SW Gulf through at least Tue, leading to an increase of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave currently moving across the Caribbean. An area of scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails across the far west Caribbean north of 16N and west of 83W. The NW corner of the basin is at the eastern edge of upper-level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the upper level trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough affecting the coast of Colombia and Panama. Fair weather prevails across the central and eastern Caribbean. Latest ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong easterly trades dominate the basin. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will support minimal gale force winds again tonight through the early morning hours just offshore Colombia, with resultant high seas continuing through Sun night before slowly subsiding today and returning Monday. This gradient will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through the period, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean will continue to spread northwestern toward the southern Gulf of Mexico through late tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of 70W, affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N75W to 27N80W. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N51W to 29N58W with scattered showers. A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 26N43W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 25N59W. Light to gentle tradewinds prevail north of 20N, while moderate to strong winds are noted south of 20N. A relatively weak high pressure ridge will remain along 23N before shifting northward to 26N Wed night through Thu night. A weak cold front will move across the waters north of 27N on Mon, then stall from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas Tue afternoon. A weak pressure pattern will persist north of 22N by mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA