000 AXNT20 KNHC 300602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure in Colombia will contribute to gale force east winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast this evening and tonight. Expect gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 to 14 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 75W. The wind speeds will slow down to less than gale-force on Sunday morning. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15kt. This wave has little surface component, however a moisture maximum is noticeable in the TPW and the 700 mb wave diagnostics suggests this location. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are near the cost of Guinea from 05N to 13N between Africa and 24W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in Guinea from 11W westward to the coast. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N southward. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W from 21 southward. This tropical wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A western Caribbean Sea tropical is along 83W from 19N nearby precipitation is to the west of the tropical wave, and at the eastern edge of an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, near 11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ is along 06N22W to 04N40W to 06N50W. Excluding convection near the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the boundary extending 90 nm north of the monsoon trough. and along the ITCZ from 04N to 06N between 35W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough is in the coastal plains from south Texas into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is along 89W/90W from 24N northward. Scattered moderate convection is seen moving offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, with more scattered showers east of Pensacola, and scattered to moderate convection along the Florida Straits is slowly moving north of the Cuba into the Florida Keys. A weak trough over the north central Gulf will dissipate through tonight as it drifts into the NW Gulf. Weak high pressure will build over the NE Gulf through early next week. Farther south, a trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 14N northward from 81W westward. This part of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea is at the eastern edge of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the upper level trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force tonight just offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and again Sun night just offshore Colombia, with resultant high seas continuing through Sun night before slowly subsiding beginning on Mon. This gradient will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through at least Thu night, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of 75W, affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. To the east, a cold front extends along 30N between 51W-63W enhancing convection north of 28N between 52W-57W. A second cold front extends east of the first front from 31N37W to 28N48W. A 1026 mb surface high is centered near 34N25W. Light to gentle tradewinds prevail north of 18N, while moderate to strong winds are noted south of 21N. The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through this evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the period. Ample atmospheric moisture over the western waters including waters around the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Sun. Some of this activity may be accompanied by locally strong gusty winds and rough seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres