000 AXNT20 KNHC 300005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Expect Gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 75W. The wind speeds will slow down to less than gale-force on Sunday morning. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 20N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are from 04N to 10N between Africa and 25W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in Guinea from 11W westward to the coast. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 11N southward. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 22N southward. This tropical wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. A western Caribbean Sea tropical is along 82W/83W from 20N southward. Any nearby precipitation is to the west of the tropical wave, and at the eastern edge of an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania, near 18N16W, to 17N18W. The ITCZ is along 06N24W 05N36W 04N43W 04N50W, into French Guiana near 03N54W. Isolated moderate rainshowers, excluding the precipitation that is with the tropical waves, are elsewhere from 04N to 10N between Africa and 25W, and elsewhere from 11N southward from 25W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough is in the coastal plains from south Texas into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is along 89W/90W from 24N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are spread throughout the area. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in NW Cuba/the Straits of Florida from 23N to 24N between 81W and 83W. The current north central Gulf of Mexico trough will dissipate through tonight, as it drifts into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure will build into the NE Gulf of Mexico through early next week. A surface trough will develop each afternoon in the Yucatan Peninsula, and move offshore into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico each evening. Expect fresh to locally strong northeast winds from 22N southward from 94W eastward, during the evening hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N northward from 82W westward. This part of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea is at the eastern edge of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the upper level trough that is in the Gulf of Mexico. A strong pressure gradient, between the Bermuda high and low pressure in northern Colombia, will support gale-force winds tonight just offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and again on Sunday night just offshore Colombia, with resultant high seas continuing through Sunday night before slowly subsiding beginning on Monday. This gradient also will support strong to near gale force winds in much of the central and SW Caribbean Sea through at least Thursday night, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 76W/78W, from Andros Island in the Bahamas to 30N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from 24N northward from 75W westward. A cold front passes through 32N55W to 30N60W and 30N66W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 26N northward between 54W and 72W. A cold front/stationary front passes through 32N38W to 28N45W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between 30W and 50W. The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through this evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the period. Ample atmospheric moisture over the western waters including waters around the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Sun. Some of this activity may be accompanied by locally strong gusty winds and rough seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt