000 AXNT20 KNHC 291738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will contribute to cause gale force east winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight. These winds should drop below gale force on Sun morning and continue through the next few days. Peak seas will reach 15 feet in this area during this event. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the coast of Africa with axis along 19W from 01N- 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has little surface component, however a moisture maximum is noticeable in the TPW and is identifiable through the 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N and west of 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W, from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has little surface component, though it is identifiable in 700 mb trough model diagnostics. No significant convection is noted with the wave at this time. A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 62W from 07N-25N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper-level trough, which is weakening it at mid levels. Latest scatterometer data depicts a slight wind shift related to this wave, as well as an area of moderate to fresh winds. A western Caribbean tropical is analyzed with axis along 81W and south of 20N, moving W at about 10-15 kt. The wave is identifiable in 700 mb model trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the wave's environment affecting the western Caribbean waters west of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea from 09N13W to 06N27W. The ITCZ is along 06N28W to 04N45W into NE Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are located 03N-05N between 41W-45W and from 04N-06N between 49W- 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough prevails across the western Gulf. Upper level southerly flow continues to bring tropical moisture into the central and eastern Gulf enhancing scattered moderate convection. This activity is also affecting the Florida Peninsula. A 1018 mb surface high is centered near 27N93W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N89W to 26N90W, while another trough prevails across central Florida along 28N. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin. The trough over the north central Gulf will dissipate through tonight as it drifts into the NW Gulf. Weak high pressure will continue building over the NE Gulf through early next week. Farther south, a trough will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off of the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. There are also two tropical waves across the basin. Refer to the sections above for details. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds over the south-central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. The only area with convection at this time is west of 80W. This activity is related to the tropical wave currently in that area. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force tonight just offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with resultant high seas continuing through Sun night before slowly subsiding beginning on Mon. This gradient will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through at least Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of 77W, affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. To the east, a stationary front extends along 30N between 60W-70W enhancing convection north of 29N between 55W-65W. A 1024 mb surface high is centered near 29N48W. A cold front extends east of this high from 31N39W to 28N44W. Gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail south of 20N, while weaker winds are noted north of 20N. The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through this evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the period. Ample atmospheric moisture over the western waters will continue to produce scattered moderate convection through the weekend. Some of this activity may be accompanied by locally strong gusty winds and rough seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA