000 AXNT20 KNHC 291059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will contribute to cause gale force east winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast. The wind speeds are forecast to diminish slightly this morning and then again increase to gale force tonight. The winds should drop below gale force Sun morning and remain that way for the next few days. Peak seas will reach 15 feet through the early morning, then lowered to 12 feet during the day and return to 15 feet tonight. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the coast of Africa near 16W from 19N southward. The system has little surface component, however a moisture maximum is noticeable in the TPW and is identifiable through the 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 04N-13N between the coast of Africa near Senegal, Sierra Leone and Guinea extending westward between 12W to 19W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 47W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant showers or thunderstorms are seen along the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave located near 60W from 25N southward, moving westward around 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. The tropical wave is moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough, helping to promote scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms from 12N to 16N between 50W and 63W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave located near 80W from 20N southward is moving W at about 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are seen from 16N to 20N between 80-84W and from 07N-11N along the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea from 09N13W to 06N27W. The ITCZ is along 06N28W to 04N45W into NE Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are located 03N-05N between 41W-45W and from 04N-06N between 49W- 54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is located over the central Gulf near 30N88W to 24N88W. This feature is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough to produce scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms E of 89W into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present in the northwestern Gulf near Louisiana, in the southwestern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. ASCAT clearly depicts the surface trough with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the wave axis. Anticyclonic flow is present west of 89W with a 1019 mb surface high pressure centered at 26N92W maintaining light winds over the western Gulf. A weak surface trough along 88W and north of 24N will move westward across the central Gulf today and into the NW Gulf Sun. This feature in combination with an upper-level low will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the central and NW Gulf waters through Sun. Unsettled weather is expected early next week for the much of the central and western Gulf waters as deep moisture spreads northwestward from the Carribbean Sea to the Gulf. Otherwise, diurnal troughing will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche each evening. The trough will bring fresh to locally strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale warnings are in effect for off of the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. See special features section for details. ASCAT scatterometer winds indicated peak winds of 30-35 kt north of Colombia and the same over the Gulf of Venezuela. The remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean showed tradewinds of 25-30 kt with 10-20 kt observed in the western Caribbean. A tropical wave just east of the Caribbean is moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough over the Gulf. This is helping to promote scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms across the western Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras to Jamaica and southern coast of Cuba. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force tonight just offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with resultant high seas continuing through Sun night before slowly subsiding beginning on Mon. This gradient will will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through at least Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough over the Gulf extends into the western Atlantic supporting scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms north of Cuba across the Florida Straits and the northern Bahamas to 31N. A cold front is near the forecast area from 31N58W to 31N65W. Scattered moderate showers are within 180 nm southeast of the front. Further east, a weak cold front extends from 31N39W to 28N45W, then a trough extends from that point to 28N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 60 nm ahead of the front. Elsewhere the region is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high that extends east-west around along 32N. Tradewinds are generally 10-20 kt south of 20N and weaker north of 20N. The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through this evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the period. Ample atmospheric moisture over the western waters including waters around the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Sun. Some of this activity may be accompanied by locally strong gusty winds and rough seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres