000 AXNT20 KNHC 290610 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 210 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will contribute to cause gale force E winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombia coast tonight. The wind speeds are forecast to diminish slightly on Sat morning and then again increase to gale force Sat night. The winds should drop below gale force Sun morning and remain that way for the next few days. Peak seas will reach to 15 feet both tonight and Sat night. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along the coast of Africa near 14W from 19N southward. The system has little surface component, however a moisture maximum is noticeable in the TPW and is identifiable through the 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 04N-13N between the coast of Africa near Senegal, Sierra Leone and Guinea extending westward between 12W to 19W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 47W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is noticeable from 04N-06N between 47W- 50W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are seen north of 06N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave located near 58W from 25N southward, moving westward around 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. The tropical wave is moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough, helping to promote scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms from 12N to 17N between 50W and 63W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave located near 77W from 19N southward is moving W at about 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 14N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ is along 07N25W to 04N40W into NE Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are located 04N-06N between 48W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is located over the central Gulf near 24N87W to 30N87W. This feature is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough to produce scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms E of 89W. into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are also present in the northwestern Gulf near Louisiana, in the southwestern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. Away from thunderstorms, the latest ASCAT clearly depicts the surface trough with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the wave axis. Anticyclonic flow is also noted west of 89W with a 1019 mb surface high pressure centered at 30N92W maintaining light winds in over the western Gulf. A weak trough over the Gulf along 87W-88W will move westward across the central Gulf through Sat and into the NW Gulf Sun. Diurnal troughing will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, moving into the Bay of Campeche each evening. The trough will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale warnings are in effect for off of the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. See special features section for details. ASCAT scatterometer winds earlier today indicated peak winds of 30-35 kt north of Colombia and the same over the Gulf of Venezuela. The remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean showed tradewinds of 25-30 kt with 10-20 kt observed in the western Caribbean. A tropical wave just east of the Caribbean is moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough over the Gulf. This is helping to promote scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms across the western Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras to Jamaica. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force winds tonight and Sat night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with high seas possibly continuing through the weekend. The pattern will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through at least Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough over the Gulf extends into the western Atlantic supporting scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms north of Cuba across the Florida Straits and the northern Bahamas to 31N. A cold front is developing near the forecast area from 31N62W to 31N67W. Scattered moderate showers are within about 90 nm of the front. Further east, a weak cold front extends from 31N39W to 28N45W, then a trough extends from that point to 28N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 60 nm ahead of the front. Elsewhere the region is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high that extends east- west around along 32N. Tradewinds are generally 10-20 kt south of 20N and weaker north of 20N. The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through Sat, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres