000 AXNT20 KNHC 282337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 737 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombia low will contribute to cause gale force E winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombia coast this evening. The wind speeds are forecast to diminish slightly on Sat morning and then again increase to gale force Sat night. The winds should drop below gale force Sun morning and remain that way for the next few days. Peak seas will reach to 15 feet both tonight and Sat night. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was relocated westward today to near 43W from 15N southward. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant showers or thunderstorms are seen in association with this wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave located near 56W from about 10N to 22N is moving westward at about 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. The tropical wave is moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough, helping to promote widely scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 15N between 53W and 63W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave located near 74W from Haiti southward is moving westward at about 20 kt. The system has little surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N28W. The ITCZ is along 08N28W to 03N51W into NE Brazil. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are located north of 05N and east of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is located over the central Gulf this afternoon. This feature is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough to produce widely scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are also present in the southwestern Gulf. Away from thunderstorms, winds are quiet over the Gulf. The weak trough over the Gulf along 87W-88W will move westward across the central Gulf through Sat and into the NW Gulf Sun. Diurnal troughing will develop each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, moving into the Bay of Campeche each evening. The trough will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several days in the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale warnings are in effect for off of the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. See special features section for details. ASCAT scatterometer winds earlier today indicated peak winds of 25-30 kt north of Colombia and the same over the Gulf of Venezuela. The remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean showed tradewinds of 15-25 kt with 10-20 kt observed in the western Caribbean. A tropical wave just east of the Caribbean is moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough, helping to promote widely scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms in the Windward Islands. In addition to the gales, the strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia will also support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through at least Tue night with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is located over the NW Bahamas and is helping to cause scattered moderate and isolated strong showers and thunderstorms over the NW Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the Florida peninsula. A weak cold front extends from 31N43W to 28N50W where it transitions to a trough that extends to 27N59W. Widely scattered moderate showers are within about 60 nm of the front/trough. Elsewhere the region is dominated by the Bermuda- Azores high that extends east-west around along 32N. Tradewinds are generally 10-20 kt south of 20N and weaker north of 20N. The surface trough over the NW Bahamas will move west into South Florida this evening. The Bermuda high will build in its wake and will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through Sat, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea