000 AXNT20 KNHC 280006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds will start this evening along the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The gale-force winds are forecast to last through Friday morning and resume again Fri evening, continuing through Sat morning. Sea heights will range from 10 feet to 13 feet. Please, refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 04N to 16N along 21/22W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a low shear environment, however is being affected by dry air and dust from a Saharan Air Layer outbreak. Scattered showers are from 04N to 11N between 18W and 25W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 03N to 16N along 48W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong shear environment and is being affected by Saharan dry air, which is limiting convection to isolated showers from 06N to 15N between 43W and 56W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 08N to 18N along 65W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a strong shear environment and is being affected by Saharan dry air, which is hindering convection at the time. A tropical wave is moving across Honduras and Nicaragua into the EPAC waters. The wave is in a strong shear environment and there is no convection associated with it affecting the Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 13N16W to 11N20W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave near 06N23W and continues along 06N35W to 07N45W, then resumes near 07N50W and continues to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 03N to 10N between 23W and 36W, and from 05N to 08N between 39W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging preavils across the basin providing mainly E to SE gentle to moderate winds, except for the far eastern gulf where a surface trough extends from 24N to 30N along 84W. Moderate moisture inflow from the SW N Atlc waters and upper level divergent flow support isolated showers and tstms over the SE gulf in the vicinity of the trough. A second trough is along adjacent waters of E Mexico from near Tampico to Veracruz. Scattered showers and tstms are from 19N to 23N W of 95W. Heavy showers and tstms are coming off the W Yucatan Peninsula associated with a diurnal trough moving into the Bay of Campeche tonight. Fresh to strong winds will be in the vicinity of the trough diminishing during early Fri morning. The trough over the E basin is forecast to move westward over the central Gulf waters on Fri, with little impact to winds and seas. A second trough will move across Florida and across the eastern Gulf on Fri, then reach the NW part of the Gulf on Sat before dissipating Sat night. Otherwise, a ridge will remain over the remainder of the area supporting gentle to moderate winds through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean, however are devoid of convection. See the waves section above. Diffluent flow between an upper level low over the NW Caribbean and an inverted trough in the central basin support scattered showers and tstms across Cuba and adjacent waters and numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms across most of Hispaniola. Otherwise, a strong pres gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres over northern Colombia will support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW sections through Tue night. NE to E winds will pulse to minimal gale force along and within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night through Sun. Winds may also reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlc waters during the weekend and into Mon, increasing winds and seas over the waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extending from near 30N70W to near Andros Island will move westward across S Florida late tonight into early on Fri. Another surface trough will track westward from the Bahamas toward S Florida late Fri through late on Sat accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. The pres gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will strengthen tonight through Sun, increasing E winds to moderate speeds E of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are expected at night N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night. Diffluent flow between an upper level low over the NW Caribbean and an inverted trough to the east support numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms across most of Hispaniola, extending to adjacent northern waters. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos