000 AXNT20 KNHC 271748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force NE to E winds are forecast to start tonight, along the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. The gale-force winds are forecast to last through Friday morning. Expect the sea heights to range from 10 feet to 12 feet. Please, refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 16N southward, moving W around 20 kt. Convective debris clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to 12N between 17W and 20W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 18N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03 to 10N between 40W and 50W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 17N southward. No deep convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 20N southward. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening but lingering rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward from 76W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SW Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N18W, 06N23W and 06N31W. The ITCZ is along 06N/07N from 31W to 46W, and then to 08N53W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 08N between 21W and 35W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N to 10N between 50W and 51W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 09N southward between 50W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the central Gulf of Mexico, along 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are along the coast/in the coastal waters, from 19N to 21N between 95W and the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are right at the coast of Mexico from 21N to 23N. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening/possibly lingering precipitation is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec A surface trough is along 83W/84W from 23N to 28N. Rainshowers are possible between the western coast of Florida and 90W. A trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula late at night through Friday, bringing fresh to strong winds northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A weak trough is forecast to move westward across the eastern Gulf, from today through tonight and inn the central Gulf waters on Friday, with little impact to winds and seas. A second trough will move across Florida and across the eastern Gulf on Friday, then reach the northwest part of the Gulf on Saturday before dissipating on Saturday night. A ridge will remain over the remainder of the area supporting gentle to moderate winds, elsewhere, through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean, across Cuba along 80W, and into Honduras and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in SE Cuba and adjacent waters. Rainshowers are possible in and around Hispaniola. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening but lingering rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward from 76W westward. A tropical wave is along 83W from 20N southward. The monsoon trough is along 08N76W in Colombia, beyond 07N83W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A strong pressure gradient, between the Bermuda high and lower pressure in Colombia, will support strong to near gale force winds in much of the central and SW sections through Monday night. Northeast to east winds will pulse to minimal gale force along and within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night through Sunday. The wind speeds may reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela also. A pair of tropical waves will move across the tropical N Atlc waters during the weekend and into Mon, increasing the wind speeds and the sea heights in the waters that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is along 32N74W, across Cuba along 80W, and into Honduras and Nicaragua. A surface trough passes through 32N71W to the NW Bahamas, near Great Abaco Island and Grand Bahama Island. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from Cuba northward from 70W westward, and in the Straits of Florida. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are from 24N northward between 60W and 70W. A surface trough passes through 32N49W to 28N54W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N43W 29N50W 25N58W. The current surface trough that reaches the NW Bahamas will move westward through this evening, and across S Florida late tonight into early on Friday. A second surface trough will track westward from the Bahamas toward S Florida, from late Friday through late on Saturday, accompanied by scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will strengthen, from tonight through Sunday, increasing east winds to moderate speeds to the east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are expected at night north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt