000 AXNT20 KNHC 271100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low is inducing gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia. The gales are forecast to end by 27/1500 UTC. Gale-force winds should redevelop in the same area tonight and end after sunrise on Fri. Gales are forecast to return Fri night. Seas of 10-13 ft are expected this morning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far E Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 15N southward, moving W around 20 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is seen within 90 nm E and 180 nm W of the wave axis from 06N-10N. A tropical wave is analyzed over the central tropical Atlantic along 45W from 04N-19N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-11N between 40W-52W. The position of the wave is based upon a maximum in Total Precipitable Water along with 700 mb trough diagnostics. A tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean, with axis analyzed along 60W from 03N-19N, moving W around 20 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds this wave limiting convection. The wave is clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough diagnostics. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 81/82W from 06N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted near the wave axis S of 12N just offshore of Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua, with isolated showers from 12N-16N. The position of the wave is based upon the 700 mb trough diagnostics. The wave may have been contributing toward the strong to gale force tradewinds over the central Caribbean to the east of the wave axis overnight, but this influence will diminish today as the wave moves farther west. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 16N16W to 07N24W to 06N26W. The ITCZ begins near 06N26W to 07N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N48W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 21W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen close to the NE coast of South America from 05N-08N between 52W-56W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is analyzed along 83W from 25N-29N with no significant precipitation seen currently. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche. West of the trough, scattered showers and tstorms are seen S of 21N and W of 94W. A broad upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is inducing scattered tstorms over the Yucatan Channel. The surface trough along 83W is forecast to move W across the eastern Gulf through tonight and over the central Gulf Fri, with little impact to winds and seas. A second trough will move across Florida and the eastern Gulf on Fri, then reach the northwest part of the Gulf Sat before dissipating Sat night. A diurnal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula late at night through Fri bringing fresh to strong NE winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a ridge will remain over the remainder of the area supporting gentle to moderate winds through the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. See Tropical Waves section for information on the convection associated with the tropical wave along 81/82W. Dry Saharan air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean, although isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the Windward Passage. Isolated showers and tstorms cover the NW Caribbean north of 19N, likely due to a broad upper-level trough over the area, which is making the atmosphere unstable. Strong to gale force winds cover the south-central Caribbean, with fresh trades elsewhere, except for the NW Caribbean, where moderate winds are noted based on the latest ASCAT pass. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean through Mon night. NE to E winds will pulse to minimal gale force along and within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night through Sun. Winds may also reach minimal gale force in the Gulf of Venezuela. A pair of tropical waves will move across the tropical N Atlc waters during the weekend and into Mon, increasing winds and seas over the waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N73W to Eleuthera Island Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas. A surface trough extends from 32N48W to 28N54W. Scattered showers are along and within 60 nm east of the trough north of 29N and east of 50W. West of 50W north of 23N, winds are light to gentle due to only weak ridging north of the area. Earlier ASCAT data shows strong N winds closer to Africa, from 16N-21N between 18W-24W. The surface trough extending from 30N73W to Eleuthera Bahamas will move west through this evening and across S Florida late tonight into early Fri. Another surface trough will track westward from the Bahamas toward S Florida late Fri through late on Sat accompanied by scattered showers and tstorms. The pressure gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will strengthen tonight through Sun, increasing east winds to moderate speeds east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are expected at night north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen