000 AXNT20 KNHC 270546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will induce nocturnal gale- force winds near the coast of Colombia beginning at 27/0600 UTC. Latest ASCAT pass from near 27/0114 UTC shows near gales in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. Winds will drop below gale force by mid-morning today. Gale-force winds should develop again in the same area tonight and end around sunrise Fri. Seas will build to 10-13 ft by early this morning in the south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over West Africa and the far E Atlantic with axis along 14/15W from 02N-15N, moving W around 20 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is seen within 90 nm E and 180 nm W of the wave axis from 06N-10N. A tropical wave is analyzed over the central tropical Atlantic, with axis extending from 19N42W to 05N44W, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-10N between 37W-52W. The position of the wave is based upon a maximum in Total Precipitable Water along with 700 mb trough diagnostics. A tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean, with axis analyzed along 58/59W from 03N-19N, moving W around 25 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds this wave limiting convection. The wave is clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough diagnostics. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 79/80W from 06N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment, with isolated tstorms also seen where the wave intersects the monsoon trough east of Costa Rica and north of western Panama. The position of the wave is based upon the 700 mb trough diagnostics. The wave may be contributing toward the strong to gale force tradewinds over the central Caribbean just east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 16N16W to 07N24W to 05N27W. The ITCZ begins near 05N27W to 07N39W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N46W to the coast of South America near 04N52W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical waves along 15W and 43W, isolated moderate convection is noted near and within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 20W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is analyzed near the west coast of Florida. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing isolated showers and tstorms near the trough from 24N-29N between the west coast of Florida and 84W. The surface trough is forecast to move W across the eastern Gulf through today, reaching the central Gulf by Friday, with little impact in winds and seas. A second trough will move across Florida into the eastern basin Fri and reach the NW waters on Sat before dissipating Sat night. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Fri night as it moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. See Tropical Waves section for information on the convection associated with the tropical wave along 79/80W. Dry Saharan air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean, although isolated showers and tstorms are seen over Haiti and in the Windward Passage. Isolated showers and tstorms cover the NW Caribbean, likely due to a broad upper-level trough over the area, which is making the atmosphere slightly more unstable. Strong to gale force winds cover the south-central Caribbean, with fresh trades elsewhere, except for the NW Caribbean, where moderate winds are noted based on the latest ASCAT pass. A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will support strong to near gale force winds in the central and SW basin through Mon night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force NW of the coast of Colombia at night through tonight, and again Sat night. Two tropical waves will move across the tropical N Atlc waters during the weekend into Mon, increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N71W to 25N76W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the NW Bahamas, with isolated showers and tstorms west of the trough from 27N-31N between 71W-81W. A surface trough that extends from 31N49W northeastward and out of the area is inducing scattered showers north of 29N between 46W-50W. West of 50W north of 23N, winds are light to gentle due to only weak ridging north of the area. ASCAT shows strong N winds closer to Africa, from 16N-21N between 18W- 24W. The trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through tonight, reaching Florida early on Fri. The pressure gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will strengthen today through Sun, increasing the trade winds to moderate E of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are expected at night N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage today through Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen