000 AXNT20 KNHC 262329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 729 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A strengthening Bermuda high is anticipated to induce nocturnal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia beginning this evening and ending by sunrise Thursday. Gale-force winds should develop again in the same area by Thursday night and end by sunrise Friday. Seas will build to 10-12 ft in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located over West Africa with axis along 13W from 01N-15N. Scattered showers are occurring within 75 nm on either sides of the wave's axis mainly south of 12N. A tropical wave is analyzed over the central tropical Atlantic, with axis extending along 41W from 04N-18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 10N. The position of the wave is based upon a maximum in Total Precipitable Water east of the wave axis along with 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant surface signature is present with this wave. A tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean, with axis analyzed along 57W from 04N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds this wave limiting convection at this time. The wave is clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough diagnostics, as well as a surface trough seen in the ASCAT scatterometer data. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from 05N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment. The position of the wave is based upon the 700 mb trough diagnostics. The wave may be contributing toward the strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean just east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near 15N17W to 07N23W. The ITCZ begins near 07N23W to 06N38W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N44W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave along 41W, scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered along the border of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the Mexican coast mainly north of 20N and west of 94W. A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Fri night as it moves west-northwest over the SW Gulf. A weak trough is forecast to move westward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Thu, reaching the central Gulf by Fri, with little impact in winds and seas. A second trough will move across Florida into the eastern basin Fri and reach the NW waters on Sat before dissipating Sat night. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Central America west of 80W. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia is producing generally moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, with strong breezes N of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high will continue strengthening this evening increasing winds across the central and SW basin through the weekend. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force NW of the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night, and then again Sat night. Expect also some increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles Fri through the weekend with the passage of the next tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 31N72W to 26N78W with scattered showers. West of 50W, winds are light to gentle due to only weak ridging north of the areas. East of 50W, generally moderate to fresh NE winds prevail. The trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in the area. The Bermuda high will strengthen tonight through Sun night, and trade winds will increase to moderate E of the Bahamas, and to a fresh breeze across the Old Bahama Channel, and N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA