000 AXNT20 KNHC 261753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strengthening Bermuda high is anticipated to induce nocturnal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia beginning this evening and ending by sunrise Thursday. Gale force winds should return to the area Thursday night and end by sunrise Friday. Seas will build to 10-12 ft in the south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added near 10W from over West Africa to near 00N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm of the axis north of 05N. The position of the wave is mainly based upon 700 mb trough diagnostics. A tropical wave is near 38W from 06N-17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 05N-07N between 36W-40W. The position of the wave is mainly based upon a maximum in Total Precipitable Water east of the wave axis along with 700 mb trough diagnostics. No significant surface signature is present with this wave. A tropical wave is near 53W from 02N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave, limiting convection at this time. The wave is clearly identifiable from 700 mb trough diagnostics as well as a surface trough seen in the ASCAT scatterometer observations. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 05N-22N, moving W around 15 kt. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is present in association with the wave. The position of the wave is based upon the 700 mb trough diagnostics. The wave may be contributing toward the strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean just east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near 15N17W to 07N22W. The ITCZ begins near 07N22W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave, scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are present within 120 nm of the axis from 18W to 30W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 60 nm of the axis between 40W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1023 mb high is centered along the border of Louisiana and Mississippi. Anticyclonically turning winds across the Gulf are all generally gentle to moderate breeze. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the Mexican coast north of 20N. A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Thu night as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. A weak trough is forecast to move westward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Thu, reaching the central Gulf by Fri, with little impact in winds and seas. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Central America and Yucatan of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low pressure over northern Colombia is producing generally moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic, with strong breezes N of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. The morning ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated peak NE winds of 30 kt, just northwest of Colombia. The Bermuda high will strengthen beginning today increasing winds across the central and SW basin through the weekend. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force NW of the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night, and then again Sat night. Expect also some increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles Fri through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N58W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are present within 180 nm east of the trough north of 28N. West of 50W, winds are light to gentle due to only weak ridging north of the areas. East of 50W, a strong but northward positioned Azores high is contributing toward generally moderate to fresh NE tradewinds. A trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in the area today. The Bermuda high will strengthen tonight through Sun night, and trade winds will increase to moderate E of the Bahamas, and to a fresh breeze across the Old Bahama Channel, and N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea