000 AXNT20 KNHC 261015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 615 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strengthening Bermuda high will induce nocturnal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia beginning this evening and ending by sunrise Thursday. Gale force winds will return to the area Thursday night and end by sunrise Friday. Seas will build to 9-13 ft in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 37W from 02N-14N, moving W around 15 kt. A TPW maximum is noted just behind the wave's axis. Model guidance also supports this position. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are noted from 03N-09N between 31W-42W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 50W from 06N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This position is supported by model guidance. Dry Saharan air surrounds the wave, limiting convection at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 09N-21N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave. A tropical wave extends from 17N86W in the NW Caribbean southward through Central America and into the East Pacific. Scattered moderate convection is seen over eastern Nicaragua and the waters off of Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated tstorms are over E Honduras and the waters N of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N17W to 07N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ begins near 06N25W to 06N34W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N39W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Aside from the convection described near the tropical wave, scattered moderate showers are noted within 90 nm N and 150 nm S of the ITCZ between 42W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface and low-mid level ridging is over the north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level southerlies over the western Gulf continue to draw moist tropical air northward. In addition, a surface trough is analyzed over the W Gulf from 28N92W to 23N96W. Broken clouds along with isolated showers cover much of the western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered tstorms are seen along the coast from Tampico to Veracruz. Farther east, isolated showers and tstorms are seen in a small area offshore of SW Florida and in the Yucatan Channel. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong winds in the south-central Gulf, to the north and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. A trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to strong winds each night through Thu night as it moves west- northwest over the SW Gulf. A weak trough is forecast to move westward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Thu, reaching the central Gulf by Fri, with little impact in winds and seas. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves mentioned in the section above, isolated showers and tstorms are seen south of Cuba and in the Yucatan Channel. Gentle easterly trades are noted across the northwest Caribbean, and moderate to fresh east winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The most recent ASCAT pass shows some strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and off the N coast of Colombia. A weak pres gradient between the Bermuda high and low pres over northern Colombia is producing generally moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, with strong breezes N of Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high will strengthen beginning today increasing winds across the central and SW basin through the weekend. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force NW of the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night, and then again Sat night. Expect also some increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles Fri through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 28N57W. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection along and within 180 nm SE of the trough, mainly north of 24N between 46W- 55W. A trough NE of the Bahamas will move westward through Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pres gradient on the SW side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing light to gentle winds in the area today. The Bermuda high will strengthen tonight through Sun night, and trade winds will increase to moderate E of the Bahamas, and to a fresh breeze across the Old Bahama Channel, and N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen